Global Market Outlook On Sugar & HFCS

  • The global supply surplus is expected to be 8– 10 MMT for 2017/2018
  • Production of India, Thailand, and the EU has been drastically high in 2017/2018 oversupplying the market
  • In addition, Brazil sugarcane diversion toward ethanol and sugar crushing drive the global sugar supply and impacts price
  • Excess production of sugar in the EU is driving the price market downwards
  • The global HFCS production is expected to witness a rise between 2015 and 2020. Supplies are expected to grow at a significant pace, owing to the increasing demand from beverage industries in the developing countries

  • The global corn supply and sugar prices determine the prices of HFCS in major producing countries


Sugar - Value Chain Analysis

  • One MT of cane/beet will yield 265 pounds of sugar and 2.3 gallons of ethanol. Price realization from ethanol drives the production of sugar. In Brazil, at present, the price of sugar is 1.15 times higher than the price of ethanol, which is driving the sugar production in the country
  • The leftovers from sugar production, like molasses and sugar beet pulp, can be used for other purposes, such as animal feed, paper, yeast, and amino acid production, in culture media for the biotechnological production of alcohol, citric acid, nutritional yeast, and as a soil conditioner
  • Press Mud is used in the biofertilizer industry, and bagasse goes into paper manufacturing

Global Supply–Demand Analysis

  • The global sugar production in 2017-2018 is expected to increase by 58percent from the previous year to 191 MMT, due to increase in sugar production in Thailand, the EU, and India, owing to good weather condition, expansion of cultivation area and an increase in sugarcane production. Global consumption is growing at a CAGR of 1.2 percent from 2012 to 2017
  • The global sugar supply in 2017-2018 is expected to reach 287 MMT, with consumption reaching 174 MMT 
  • A 9.5 percent increase global ending stock are forecasted in 2017/2018 from 2013 to 2014, due to  high an increase in production and less than anticipitated increase in consumption  
  • Brazil, India, and Thailand are the major sugar producing countries in the world 
  • Increase in global sugar production in 2017/2018 can be witnessed compared to the previous year, owing to the rise in the EU sugar production after quota expiry

Global Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Production

  • The EU sugar beet production is expected to increase in 2017/2018 compared to the previous year, owing to the removal of the sugar production regime in the EU in 2017. Similarly, Brazil, Thailand, and Indian cane production is expected to increase due to good monsoon
  • Sugar is produced either from sugar beet or sugarcane. Depending upon the suitability of countries, either beet or cane or both are grown to produce sugar
  • The EU occupies 43 percent of the share in the total beet production, and Russia is the second largest beet producing region
  • On an average, France and Germany are the leading sugar beet producers in the world, producing 40.02 MMT  and 259 MMT, respectively
  • Brazil and India are the top cane producers, contributing to 29 percent and 17 percent in the total cane production, respectively
  • China and the US produce both sugarcane and sugar beet