Crude Oil
Market, Supplier, Risk and
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Industry Outlook & Drivers

Crude Oil Global Market Outlook 

Crude oil market size

• Global crude oil supply stands at 94.7 Mbpd
• Global crude oil demand stands at 99.8 Mbpd
• Demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.2 percent until 2023

Crude Oil Proved Reserves Globally 

• The total proven crude oil reserves globally in 2018 was at 1729 thousand million barrels, which is an increase of 0.1 percent compared to 2016 reserves.
• The OECD countries contributed about 14.3 percent of the total proven reserves globally, whereas non-OECD countries contributed about 85.7 percent

Distribution of Proved Crude Oil Reserves from 1995 to 2018 

• The global proved oil reserves increased from 1.697 billion barrels in 2016 to 1.696 billion barrels in 2017
• Reserves have increased by 22.9 percent, or 318 billion barrels, over the past decade and are sufficient to meet 50.7 years of the global production
• Colombia recorded a decline, with proved reserves falling by 2.3 thousand million barrels, while Iraq proved reserves grew by 153 thousand million barrels
• OPEC countries continue to hold the largest share (85.7 percent) of global proved reserves.
• On a regional basis, South and Central American reserves have the highest R/P ratio of 119 years.

Per Capita Consumption of Oil in 2018

• The highest per capita consumption in 2018 for crude oil was from NAM and the Middle East with over 2.5 tons/capita
• Australia, Japan, and the Netherlands stood in the next level of per capita consumption, from 1.5 tons to 2.5 tons
• Chile and Colombia stood at a higher rate of consumption per capital levels, at 1 ton to 1.5 tons in LATAM

Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Analysis

Oil Market Analytics

•  Supply–Demand: Global demand and supply growth have sustained above 100 million barrels with supply/demand reflecting stability. The implied surplus line issloping sideways further implying stability in the global market. However, the relative levels of surplus remain high and will weigh negatively on the crude oil prices.
•  OPEC Supply: OPEC countries have extended the production cut deal to Mar-2020 and the decline in overall supplies is evident from OPEC. However, further compliance will require major challenges as Saudi Arabia would prefer higher oil prices to support Aramco IPO which can influence other oil producers to increase production as well on higher price levels.

US Oil Production sustain all-time high levels:

•  US Production: The US crude oil production has stabilized around 12 mbpd with marginal decrease as rig counts continue to decline steadily. However, overall levels on a historical basis continue to remain significantly high.
• US Inventories: The inventory levels declined to 450 million barrels post increasing to 480 million barrels reflecting short-term recovery in crude oil demand. The decline in inventory levels is expected to persist as prices hold relatively higher levels.
• US Exports: The US crude oil exports have sustained 3.0 mbpd levels, but have witnessed decline in levels intermittently and hence reflects decline in external demand which can reflect negatively on oil prices in upcoming months.

Supply Market Outlook

North America

• The US imports crude oil for their refineries from Canada and Mexico Europe
• European oil imports originate from Russia, other FSU countries, the Middle East,and North Africa. APAC
• India, China, Korea are the major demand centers of Crude Oil in Asia, which are the major driver of Crude Oil prices.

LATAM

• Brazil, Chile, and Argentina have the highest demand in LATAM countries, they generally import from neighboring countries.

Africa

•  Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya are the major Crude oil producing countries in Africa.

Crude Oil Price History 

• Crude oil was within $4/bbl until 1970 before witnessing a major increase during the period of 1970-1980 in terms of percentage change
• Post consolidating within a range of $12-35/bbl from 1980-2000, crude oil prices established a new range of $20-140/bbl
• The current decrease in price is expected to result in an unfolding a long-term consolidation in the range of 20-140 with price mostly fluctuating in the median of mentioned range in the upcoming years