Australia Natural Gas Market Overview
Last year, Australia's Natural Gas production increased by 17.7 percent to reach 113.5 billion cubic meters with a rise in the East Coast and Queensland CSG production and it is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.2 percent by 2019. Australia's export was at 75.9 billion cubic meters in 2017, and it is expected to increase at a CAGR of 23.6 percent by 2019, mainly from supplying LNG (Liquefied natural gas) to Asian economies. The electricity generation sector is estimated to decrease its share in natural gas consumption in the coming years, due to an increasing share of renewables in the fuel mix.
According to the Australia natural gas price forecast, the average industrial natural gas price averaged at AUD 9.64/GJ in April-June 2019, a decrease of 3.2 percent compared to AUD 9.96/GJ in January-March 2019.
The natural gas price forecast also shows that Australia is a major LNG exporter, and in 2018 shipped around 91.8BCM of LNG. In case of higher share of exports, the domestic supply shrinks leading to high prices for natural gas in Australia.
The natural gas market analysis also shows that domestic gas consumption and LNG exports are the key drivers in determining the wholesale price component of the final industrial natural gas prices.
It is also estimated that the rising natural gas demand from China, India, Africa, & the Middle East, and increasing demand from Eastern & Southeastern Australia might deplete the reserves, and increase natural gas prices in Australia for the next five years. The report also provides a detailed SWOT analysis of some of the major suppliers in Australia including the AGL, Lumo Energy, Synergy etc. Additionally, the report covers Australia natural gas price drivers and the procurement best practices for industrial consumers in Australia.
Beroe gathers intelligence through primary sources that include industry experts, researchers, and consultants, as well as current suppliers, producers and distributors. Secondary sources can include business journals, newsletters, magazines, market research data, company sources, and industry associations. Following data collation, analysis, and strategic review, the Final Research Report is published on Beroe LiVE.
Australia Natural Gas Market Trends
Category Intelligence on Australia Natural Gas covers the following
- Information relating to market, supply, cost, and pricing analysis
- Hard to find data on cost and TCO models, supplier details, and performance benchmarks
- Macroeconomic and regional trends impacting cost, supply, and other market dynamics
- Category-specific negotiation and sourcing advice
Industry Outlook & Drivers
Australia Natural Gas Industry Outlook
- An interconnected gas grid connects all of Australia's eastern and southern states and territories. While traditionally focussed on domestic sales, this market is undergoing structural changes as a gas export industry
- The western gas market is heavily focussed on exports, but also supplies domestic consumption in Western Australia
- The northern gas market is Australia's smallest producer. Its basins provide gas for export, and also for domestic consumption in the Northern Territory
- The eastern gas region has some wholesale markets for gas, which allow retailers or large customers to purchase gas without entering into long-term contracts
- AWE plans for two new domestic gas production facilities at Western Australia, namely Wheatstone at 200 TJ/day (by 2018) and Gorgon at 118TJ/day (by 2020), thereby increasing the total capacity by 19 percent by 2020
- According to natural gas market analysis, in July-September 2019, average industrial natural gas price in Australia is expected to decrease by 1-3 percent over Apr-June 2019 to an average at AUD 9.5/GJ. Expected decrease in demand for natural gas from Europe and APAC regions with end of summer along with global economic slowdown will keep the natural gas prices lower in Australia.
- The impactful cost components: Wholesale Australia natural gas price has huge impact on final prices and its share in final price varies between 70-90 percent depending the region and location of production.
Natural Gas Proved Reserves
- Australia's natural gas proven reserves stood at 70 Tcf in 2017, i.e., 133 percent increase over 2016
- Explorations and discovery had increased Australia's proven natural gas reserves from 28 Tcf in 2012 to 70 Tcf in 2017, an increase of almost 150 percent
- Australia has a R/P ratio of 44 years, which is lower than the world's average of 52.8 years, indicating higher demand in the coming years, cautioning to increase explorations and productions
- AWE reports independent review had increased by 78 percent the estimated reserves for Waitsia natural gas field in the Perth Basin of Western Australia which a largest onshore discovery for 40 years and is destined for the domestic market
Australia Natural Gas Price Analysis
- The Australian industrial natural gas price is averaged at AUD 9.41/GJ in Sept-Nov 2018, an increase of 13.49 percent as compared AUD 8.3/GJ in June-Aug 2018
- Increase in price is mainly due to the highest summer demand for natural gas in power production across APAC regions
- Insufficient coal supply, decrease in crude production by OPEC, and shortage of crude at a global level, due to the US–Iran disagreement, has added to the rise in natural gas price
- During Dec-Feb 2019, average natural gas industrial price is expected to increase by 8.6 percent over Sept-Nov 2018 to average at AUD 10.2/GJ. This is due to an increase in demand for natural gas from the US and Asian Pacific regions, due to extreme low temperatures across these regions
- Natural gas supply tightness from OPEC's production cut down, increased record low winter demand from the US and APAC market will keep the Australian natural gas demand higher
Australia Natural Gas Price Drivers
- Domestic gas consumption and LNG exports are the key drivers in determining the wholesale price component of the final industrial natural gas prices
- At the industrial level, load factor and Take or Pay levels can alter gas bills significantly, and therefore should be optimized
Why You Should Buy This Report
- This report provides a detailed analysis of the Australia natural gas price forecast, the cost break-up, supply chain, the natural gas price drivers, and analysis.
- It lists out the natural gas industry trends in Australia and best procurement practices.
- The report does a SWOT analysis of major players such as AGL, Lumo Energy, Origin Energy, etc.
- This natural gas market analysis report breaks down the industry structure, supply-demand trends, and key regulations and policies affecting the Natural Gas Market.
- It provides Porter’s five force analysis of the natural gas market in Australia.