China Electricity Market Overview
The electricity generation capacity of China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6 percent with a growth in the generation of renewable energy at 38.2 percent CAGR by 2020. Furthermore, China's dependency on thermal power has declined from 77 percent to 64 percent, and it can go below 50 percent within a decade if the restraint continues on coal power production. China plans to rely more on electricity generation from nuclear, renewable sources such as solar and wind power, and natural gas to replace coal. This is being done to achieve the goal of diminishing carbon emissions and heavy air pollution in urban areas. By 2020, China has intended to introduce 15 percent non-fossil fuel consumption by reducing the dependence on coal fossil fuel.
The electricity prices for China are expected to remain the same until June 2019, after which, the Chinese government is expected to again reduce the China electricity prices for industrial consumers and commercial customers by 8–10 percent. Natural gas price is projected to remain stable in the Q3 period with stable demand. Regulations set by the government are the major drivers for China electricity price, as the price are regulated and completely controlled by government. Crude oil prices also impact prices in multiple ways by determining cost structure, economic growth, and hence, a rise in crude oil prices will definitely put an upward pressure on Chinese electricity prices.
The China electricity market is governed by 5 big state-owned businesses having around 45 percent market share along with their subsidiaries having around 25 percent market share. The report further includes information on the key regulations and policies affecting the China electricity market. Renewable capacity addition for China is expected to increase by 14-16 percent, and solar capacity is expected to grow, mainly due to the solar capacity target of 100 GW to be achieved by 2020.
Beroe gathers intelligence through primary sources that include industry experts, researchers, and consultants, as well as current suppliers, producers and distributors. Secondary sources can include business journals, newsletters, magazines, market research data, company sources, and industry associations. Following data collation, analysis, and strategic review, the Final Research Report is published on Beroe LiVE.
China Electricity Market Trends
Category Intelligence on China Electricity covers the following
- Information relating to market, supply, cost, and pricing analysis
- Hard to find data on cost and TCO models, supplier details, and performance benchmarks
- Macroeconomic and regional trends impacting cost, supply, and other market dynamics
- Category-specific negotiation and sourcing advice
Industry Outlook & Drivers
China Electricity Market Global Industry Outlook
- Electricity generation capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.7 percent for next two years, with a growth of 33 percent CAGR in the renewable generation capacity from wind power
- China's dependence on thermal power capacity declined from 77 percent to 60 percent, and it can be expected to go below 50 percent by 2030, if the coal power production curb continues
- China's total electric power capacity increased to just over 1.89 tera watts (1.89 TW), with water, wind, and solar sources, accounting for 37.4 percent in 2018 up from 34 percent in 2016
- It ranks first in R&D renewable energy with $1.9 billion spending by 2016 and it has the world's largest floating solar panel with a generation capacity of 40MW
- The China Electricity Market Overview Capacity 2018: 1,899 GW and 2018–2020: 7.7 percent CAGR
- According to China electric power market reports, the impactful cost components are: Cost of generation has a huge impact on final prices and its share in final china electricity prices for industrial consumers varies between 55–65 percent depending upon the cost of input fuel sources.
- China Electricity Price Outlook: From 2018, the Chinese government supported industrial and commercial customers by reducing the electricity prices by 10 percent in order to promote economic development.
- China electricity price drivers: Government Regulations | Crude Oil Prices | Electricity Industrial Demand | Renewable Energy.
Supply and Demand
- Electricity generation is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6 percent for next two years to keep up with consumption while it is slower than expected and is expected to increase spare capacity in next few years
- Electricity consumption in the grid is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5 percent for next 2 years, reaching 7912 TWh
- in 2020
- Transmission losses are at 5–6 percent currently, which is lower than the world average of 8 percent and it is expected that the losses will remain at a level of 5–6 percent by 2019
- Dependence on hydro, wind, and solar rose to 25.4 percent in 2018, in terms of electricity generation and by 37.4 percent, in terms of electric power generation capacity
Generation and Consumption Profile
- Secondary industry has the highest share of 69% percent in the consumption share in 2018, followed by tertiary industry sector with 15.77 percent share
- The tertiary industry sector is expected to have the highest consumption growth rate of 11 percent, followed by the residential sector
- In 2019, tertiary industrial share is expected to be at 85.9 percent and residential sector at 13.9 percent
- In the first 10 months of 2018, electricity consumption has reached 5660 TWh which is an 8.7% YoY growth compared to 2017
Capacity Addition and Utilization Outlook
- Generation capacity growth rate is around 1.5 percent CAGR for next three years, which is lower than expected due to slowdown in power demand in China
- Transmission capacity investment is expected to growth at 7.7 percent CAGR for the 2017–2020 period to create a single grid for China and to further reduce the transmission losses
- In 2019, power supply capacity investment are expected to be ¥434.5 billion while power grid investments are expected to be at ¥620.4 billion
China – Renewable Energy Overview
China plans to rely more on electricity generation from nuclear, other renewable sources, and natural gas, in order to replace some coal with the goal of reducing carbon emissions and the heavy air pollution in urban areas. Renewable capacity addition for China is expected to increase by 14–16 percent for 2017–2019. Solar capacity is expected to grow, mainly due to the solar capacity target of 100 GW to be achieved by 2020.
- China's vast coal resources enable the fuel to be the major component, with 70.4 percent share in the electricity fuel mix
- Solar is currently less than 3 percent of the total generation, however, with a more focus on renewable sources, generation capacity for solar power has witnessed a 50 percent jump in 2018
- Chinese government has announced subsidy cuts for solar panel manufacturers, which is expected to slow down the solar power ancillary industry in the countryWind energy is the strongest RES contributor in electricity generation with a share of 5.2 percent in 2019
China Electricity Price Drivers
- Regulations set by the government are the major drivers for electricity prices in China, as the price are regulated and completely controlled by government
- Crude oil prices also impact prices in multiple ways by determining cost structure, economic growth, and hence, a rise in crude oil prices will definitely put an upward pressure on Chinese Electricity Prices
Why You Should Buy This Report
The China electric power market reports give information on the industry structure, value chain, china electricity generation capacity, supply and demand, market consumption, etc. It lists out the key regulations and policies affecting the China electricity market and gives details on the regulations and incentives for renewables. It gives the Porter’s Five Force Analysis of the China Electricity Market, details the supplier landscape and gives the SWOT analysis of key players like China Huaneng Group, China Guodian Corporation, China Datang Corporation, etc. The report provides the cost structure analysis, cost breakup, China electricity price trend and forecast and lists out the price drivers.