Regional Market Outlook on Recycled Kraft Paper Price Trend

Kraft paper is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 9.3 percent from 2018-2020 . The market is highly fragmented in nature. Most of mills are located in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana. For Indian paper mills, export business are emerging as an opportunity due to high margins and is expected to grow further due to increasing demands.

Kraft Paper Raw Material – Supply & Demand

In India, the recovery rate of recovered paper is less around 25-27 percent, the remaining is being imported making domestic supply less than the demand. India mainly imports from the US followed by Europe and Middle East, so, any fluctuations is imported raw material prices are expected to impact the prices . The Chinese Government’s ban on waste paper have  resulted a drop in prices at global level.

 Market Drivers

  • China  Regulation : Ban on waste paper in China is , currently one of the major market drivers for India  making supply more than demand and decrease in recovered paper prices globally
  • Exports : Increasing demand from exports; which have increased from last year and is mainly exported to China, SriLanka, Middle East and is expected to increase further
  • End-Use Industries : Strong demands from end-use industries such as  E-Commerce, FMCG, Consumer Durables, Agriculture, Electronics, etc.
  • Income & Expenditure : Rising disposable income levels , growing per capita expenditure and a larger segment of earning population is expected to increase demand

Kraft Paper Cost Drivers - India

Raw Material Cost

In India, waste or recovered paper is the major raw material and accounts for 60-70 percent of the total kraft paper production cost. Fluctuations in imported or domestic price is directly affecting the Kraft Paper prices. Price hikes in recovered paper had a severe impact on kraft paper thereby increasing a shoot in the prices is 2017

Utility Cost

In India, paper mills are still dependent upon coal  for electricity generation which is majorly being imported from Indonesia and South Africa. The imported coal prices had increased in 2017 and has also witnessed a price hike in 2018  until September. Since utility costs comprises of 5-6 percent of the production cost, so increase in utility cost will have a medium impact on price increase as compared to waste paper.

Demand and Supply Dynamics

Demand from domestic and exports consumption is  also another factor which might have a high impact on kraft paper price if the market conditions are tight. According to Indian paper mills , exports of kraft paper have increased drastically in 2018 due to high margins and demand from countries such as  China, Sri Lanka, Middle East, African Countries. Ban on waste paper in China due to environmental regulation and the US-China trade war are expected to be one of the reasons for high demand from these countries especially China

Exchange Rate

Strengthening of USD against INR will  also have an impact on the domestic price as compared to waste paper price. Until October 2018, the USD-INR exchange rate increased by 11 percent when compared to 2017, however, the current prices of Kraft Paper are lower than the previous year due to decrease in recovered paper prices

Recovered Paper Imports & Price Trends

With the growing Indian economy and the increasing demand, India imports a large quantity of recovered or waste paper. In 2018, Kraft paper prices have stabilized after a period of high volatility due to sudden hike in raw material prices last year. 2018 is an unprecedented boom for Indian manufacturers due to lower waste or recovered paper prices.

  • In 2017, recovered or waste paper imports  increased by only 3.6 percent due to sudden hike in prices which further led to low demands from Indian paper mills. However, the market has stabilized compared to last year and imports have increased by 21 percent. This is due to drop down in imported recovered or waste paper prices  and secondly, demand for kraft paper have increased a lot in 2018 due to growing export business  and is expected to increase further in near future according some of the paper mills in India
  • Approximately 40 percent of the recovered or waste paper is imported from the US followed by UK, UAE, Saudi Arabia
  • India witnessed a price hike of ~20 percent in imported recovered or waste paper in 2017 while the prices have decreased by~10-11 percent in 2018. The prices are expected to remain stable due to availability of raw material. Chinese ban on waste paper is expected to be one of the reasons