• Wheat Market Intelligence | Price, Forecast, Cost Models, Market Analysis

Wheat Market Description

The global wheat production has been rising at a constant CAGR of 2.58 percent over the last five years. The key factors driving this growth include the emphasis of wheat production in Russia due to export potential and end-user industries such as feed and food in South East Asia. Approximately 4.7 to 4.9 MMT of wheat is produced annually in the wheat starch industry in major producing regions such as France, the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, the UK, Belgium, Canada, Japan, and China.

The demand for wheat is high in the processed flour sector, particularly for bakery products in South Asia, which exhibits an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. The suppliers are grouped into three tiers - tier 1 has global companies with 20 to 30 percent of market share, tier 2 has mostly global companies with 15 to 20 percent market share, and tier 3 has regional companies that make up 45 to 55 percent of market share. The report also provides a comprehensive market analysis in regions such as Russia, the U.S., China, India, and the EU. These include market information, supply-demand analysis, trade dynamics, and pricing analysis. The report also discusses industry trends, Porter’s five forces analysis, along with an overview of the global wheat starch supplier market.

Beroe gathers intelligence through primary sources that include industry experts, researchers, and consultants, as well as current suppliers, producers and distributors. Secondary sources can include business journals, newsletters, magazines, market research data, company sources, and industry associations. Following data collation, analysis, and strategic review, the Final Research Report is published on Beroe LiVE.

Report Coverage

Wheat Starch Industrial Process
Global Wheat Trade Dynamics
Cost Structure Analysis – Wheat
Regional Market Outlook- Russia, US, China, India, EU

Wheat Market Trend, Analysis & Forecast

Category Intelligence on Wheat covers the following

Information relating to market, supply, cost, and pricing analysis
Hard to find data on cost and TCO models, supplier details, and performance benchmarks
Macroeconomic and regional trends impacting cost, supply, and other market dynamics
Category-specific negotiation and sourcing advice

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Executive Summary

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Market Analysis

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Supply Analysis

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Cost & Pricing Analysis

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Best Practices

1. Wheat Market Executive Summary

1.1 Executive Summary
1.2 Global Wheat Market Overview
1.3 Contract Structures

2. Wheat Market Analysis

2.1 Value Chain Analysis
2.2 Wheat Starch Industrial Process
2.3 Global Market Outlook
– Global Supply–Demand Analysis
– Global Demand Analysis
– Global Wheat Trade Dynamics
– Global Wheat Starch Supply
– Demand Analysis
– Cost Structures

3. Wheat Regional Market Analysis

3.1 Regional Market Outlook (Russia, US, China, India, and EU)
– Supply– Demand Analysis
– Trade Dynamics
– Pricing Analysis
3.2 Industry Outlook (US, EU, and Asia)
– Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
– Innovations

4. Wheat Supplier Analysis

4.1 Global Wheat Supplier Market Share
4.2 Profiling of Major Suppliers
– ADM – Cargill Inc.
– Roquette Freres
– Agrana Group
– Tereos SA
– Regional Suppliers

Wheat Global Market Outlook

The global production of wheat has been rising at a CAGR of ~2.6 percent over a period of five years. Production in 2016 – 2017 is estimated to be 748.24 MMT, a modest increase by 1.7 percent, due to high supplies in the US and Russian offset by lower harvest in the EU
The key factors driving the growth include emphasis on wheat production in Russia due to export potential and the end-use industries such as feed and food, especially in South East Asia, with consumption having risen by ~3 percent from last year
With respect to wheat starch industry, ~4.7-4.9 MMT is produced on an annual basis. The major producing regions are France, the US, Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Japan and China

wheat-global-market-size

Animal feed manufacturers generally procure moderate amount of wheat, which could be between 200 MT and 500 MT in six months
Beer, wine, and bakery manufacturers normally procure a small amount of wheat, such as 1,000–1,500 MT on a yearly basis
For both these industries, a short-term contract (3–6 months) can be negotiated with the suppliers
The key regions for wheat supply are the EU and Russia
MATIF price is the global benchmark for the EU trade of wheat
The export price is the global benchmark for Russian trade of wheat

Wheat prices are expected to witness an upward trend for the next few months, followed by a prolonged downward trend. Thus, large buyers, who choose fixed-price short-term contracts (approx. three months), should either enter into the contract by January 2018 or reduce the length of their contracts to <3 months to leverage on falling prices and achieve significant cost savings. Small and mid-sized buyers could opt for spot buying from August 2017 onward

Prices are likely to start decreasing from January 2018 onward. Until then, spot buying is recommended

Global Supply–Demand Analysis

The global production has remained nearly stable from the previous year, but has been growing at a CAGR of 2.58 percent over the past five years
The major drivers of demand and supply are the end-use industries, such as feed and food, especially in South East Asia, with consumption in the region, having risen by 6.2 percent annually for the past 10 years
The world’s wheat production is growing at a CAGR of 2.58 percent for the last five years, and around 68 percent of the total production is dominated by the top five wheat-producing nations
Among Asian regions, China and India are the world’s second and third largest wheat producing countries owing to the large arable land and favorable climatic conditions
Russia’s wheat production is growing appreciably at a CAGR of ~14 percent over five years. However, the US is cutting down on its wheat production, with more focus on corn and soybean
Over a five-year period, the global food and industrial demand has risen by ~6.1 percent, chiefly driven by the requirement for wheat flour processors, and currently, constitutes 80 percent of the global demand
Demand from the processed flour sector for bakery products is high in case of South Asia, which exhibits an annual demand growth rate of 6.2 percent
The global demand from the feed and residual sectors has risen by ~7.8 percent over a five-year period and rose by ~1.8 percent this year to 581.9 MMT compared to 2015–2016
South Asian demand for wheat has grown annually by 6.2 percent over the past 10 years
The demand is driven by sectors, such as animal protein for feed and processed flour demand for noodles and bakery products

Global Wheat Trade Dynamics

Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat, currently experiencing a shortfall by 8.5 MMT and requiring imports
Russia has increased its market share for exports by 10 percent over the last five years, growing at a CAGR of 27.62 percent to displace the EU and US as the top exporter in the world
The EU exports have risen at a CAGR of 4.38 percent over the last five years, due to rich harvests in regions, like France. The EU displaced the US to become the largest exporter, after Russia, since 2014–2015
Wheat exports from Russia have grown at a phenomenal CAGR of 27.62 percent and are expected to further increase in the future, making Russia the top exporter in 2016–2017, displacing the EU
Egypt is the world’s largest importer. Russia and the EU compete with China for exports to Egypt. The latter has a shortfall in domestic wheat supply by 8.5 MMT, making it import dependent
Russia and the EU incur export tariffs of 0 percent to Egypt, as the latter requires imports to meet demand