Tin

Global Market Overview of Tin 

MARKET OVERVIEW

Global Refined Tin Production: 401 kt (2023 E)

Expected to grow at a CAGR of 2–4 percent to 434 kt by 2026.

• The APAC accounts for around three-fourth of the global mine production last year, with China (91,000 MT), Indonesia (71,000 MT) being the top two producers

• The global mine production and refined tin production have been affected in recent times, owing to suspension of mine operations in key regions, Myanmar, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with lower operating rates

Global Demand by Application : Tin 

• Demand from the lead acid batteries witnessed the highest growth rate of 4 percent Y-o-Y among the end users, owing to increasing usage of tin in forklifts and start-stop hybrid vehicles

• Emerging markets, such as electric vehicles and 5G communications, are expected to be a major demand driver for tin during the forecast period

Downstream Demand Outlook

• Overall, demand is expected to increase by 3–4 percent by 2024 primarily owing to the demand from electronics and EV markets

• Tinplate, which is the 3rd largest end use application for tin, have been witnessing decline in the consumption trend, owing to competition from cheaper alternatives and lower tin coating weights

• Solder, which accounts for the largest market share, in terms of consumption, witnessed an increase in consumption share in the recent years, owing to an rise in demand from the electronics segment, as more people worked from home. In addition, solar ribbon contribute approximately 10% of solder production and is an emerging market. Optimism about longer-term prospects for increased use in solar, 5G, electric vehicles, and other new technologies are prevalent .

• Demand from chemicals and soldering is expected to be affected in China, owing to power curbs

Industry Drivers and Constraints : Tin 

Drivers 

Increase in demand from new applications

• Roll out of 5G towers and growth in usage of smart devices across the globe is expected to be long term demand drivers for the Tin consumption.

Growth of Electric vehicles

• Tin and Tin compounds have found to offer better stability in Li-ion batteries. Thus, rapid electrification of vehicle in the forthcoming years is expected to boost the Tin consumption.

Constraints

Decline in demand from packaging sector

• Tinplate, which is the 3rd largest end use application for tin, have been witnessing decline in the consumption trend owing to competition from cheaper alternatives and lower tin coating weights.

Potential Tin Export ban from Indonesia

• The Indonesian government is considering a tin export ban in an effort to boost its domestic processing industry. Timeframe in which the export ban will be implemented is still undecided. Indonesia is one of the largest producers and exporters of tin and related products across the globe. As of 2021, Indonesia accounts for nearly 35% of global tin exports (HS: 800110). A potential ban on tin ingots will lead to a disruption in the global tin markets