Soybean Oil

Global Market Outlook on Soybean Oil

• The global soybean oil supply has been witnessing a steady 3% CAGR during 2015–2016/2019–2020 crop year. The crop year (2019–2020) production was expected to decrease by 2-3% against the previous crop year 2018–2019. However, the total supply is estimated to rise, owing to high carry-over stocks from last year.
• Soybean planting area has decreased in 2019-2020, low yields in the previous season discouraged farmers to plant soy in major producing regions.
• Biodiesel demand is likely to decrease the overall industrial demand in 2019-2020.
• The global soybean oil market is exhibiting moderate growth, even though the demand for biofuel has reduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• The competitive soybean oil market price against that of palm and sunflower oil, along with the potential demand growth of biofuels and increasingly strong environmental norms, indicate tangible opportunities for the soybean oil market. 

Price Benchmarking

• Soybean oil prices and contract structures are fixed by the US suppliers using CBOT soybean oil futures and adding the basis & freight costs.
• The basis is the difference between cash and futures prices. The profit margin set by the buyers depends on the time of buying & selling and also on the soybean prices.
• Soybeans supply scenario, and crush margins play a major role in driving the prices of soy oil.

Soybean Oil Value Chain

• Soybean oil value chain and prices are driven using by-products, raw materials supply, and crushing economies. approx. 82 percent of the soybean produced globally is used for the purpose of crushing, out of which 18 percent of oil and 82 percent meal are obtained
• Despite the low share as a by-product, soybean oil prices play a major role in the pricing economies of the soybean value chain, due to its utility in end-use demand

Global Soybean Oil Market Trends

• Soybean oil is relatively cheaper compared to other edible oils including canola oil, olive oil, groundnut oil, and coconut oil. As such, it is commonplace in price-sensitive markets, especially in developing regions.
• Consumers suffering from health-related issues such as high cholesterol, obesity, and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are including soybean oil in their diet regime. Rising health consciousness has influenced consumers to shift from ready-to-eat (RTE) items to homemade products which are further bolstering the demand for soybean oil.
• Various soybean oil market news have revealed that edible oil has numerous functional properties, as such, it is used in multiple food and non-food applications. 
• In the food sector, soybean oil is consumed in preparing dressings, sauces, whipped toppings, and non-dairy creamers. On the flip side, in the non-food industry, soybean oil is used for making caulks, resins, animal feed, and biodiesel.
• Given its large-scale availability, in tandem with its relatively low price, soybean oil offers a sustainable substitution for petrochemicals and known carcinogens in several industrial use cases.

Global Soybean Oil Supply–Demand Analysis

• Soybean oil supply witnessed a consecutive increase for the last three years, owing to increased soybean supply and tightened supply in the other vegetable oils, mainly the rapeseed oil market.
• Recovery in the biodiesel demand has also supported the soybean demand during the start of 2018.
• Biodiesel demand has also been relatively low since the COVID-19 crisis, the soybean oil demand during the H1 2020 was relatively low from this segment.
• Soybean oil is the second most-consumed vegetable oil in the world, with the US and Asia driving the demand.
• China is the major soybean oil-consuming country with its main end-use application being for food use.
• The growing population and soybean acreage as a result of the government-led initiatives will increase the soybean oil consumption and production in China.

Soybean Oil Market Outlook - 2019-2020

• Global production and consumption of soybean oil from 2015–2016 to 2019–2020 has been estimated to grow at a CAGR of 2.79% and 1.84%, respectively.
• The global production and consumption were expected to grow at 3.4% and 2%, respectively, for 2019–2020 compared to the previous year.
• The accelerated consumption growth of soybean oil in China will drive the production increase.
• Major soybean oil-producing regions are China, Argentina, and the U.S., which account for about 62% of the global soybean oil production.

Soybean Oil Global Demand by Application

• The global soybean oil demand witnessed a steady increase in the recent decade, owing to increasing demand from the food industry.
• Soybean oil is also seeing demand growth for industrial use cases, where it is used in biodiesel manufacturing.
• The global biodiesel production from soybean oil in 2020 was estimated to witness a steep decrease compared to the previous year.

Soybean Oil Consumption by Country

• China, the US, and Brazil are the largest consumers and producers of soybean oil.
• China is the largest producer and consumer of soybean oil. China consumes almost approx. 99% of the domestic production and imports 64 % of the global soybean to produce the soybean oil.

Soybean Oil Exports by Country (2019–2020 E)

• The global soybean oil trade from 2015–2016 to 2019–2020 grew only at a CAGR of 0.3 %, the majority of the downtrend due to the US-China trade war. The rising dependency of consumers on soybean oil, owing to the decline in palm oil and rapeseed oil production, is boosting trade in 2019–2020.
• India is the largest importing nation of soybean oil, and all of it is used in food applications.
• Market in LATAM revived in 2018-2019 with the EU relaxing its trade barrier, this trend continued in 2019-2020.

Soybean Oil Imports by Country (2019–2020 E)

• The major importers of soybean oil are India (31 percent), China (8 percent), Bangladesh (7 percent), Morocco(5 percent), and Others(42 percent).

Global Soybean Oil Market Trade Dynamics

• Argentina and Brazil are the largest soybean oil-exporting countries, accounting for about 56% of the global exports, while India is the largest soybean oil-importing country.
• The soybean oil market size is estimated to rise by 4.2% during 2019-2020 compared to the previous year.

Soybean Oil Price Forecast

• In the US, soybean oil prices showed an upward trend in Q1 2019 with a drop in Chinese oil output. Further, increasing usage of the biodiesel industry supports the price increase.
• Soybean oil prices in Argentina are expected to be stable, with an increase of 2–2.5% in the long term.
• In Brazil, prices can surge with increasing demand from Biodiesel and exports, however, can be curbed seasonally over summer with the surge in crush rates.

Regional Market Snapshot

This section analyses the different geographical regions and gives detailed information about the:

• Soybean Oil Market Size
• Soybean Oil Production Details
• Import / Export Share
• Soybean Oil Market Forecast
• Soybean Oil Market Trends 
• Soybean Oil Prices And Price Drivers
• Supply / Demand And Other Trade Dynamics

Innovations/Trends

Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Technology - By Monsanto

• After a decade of development, the new and elite germplasm in Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans can provide growers with outstanding performance in their efforts to produce the best crop possible
• Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans are built on the same high-yielding germplasm as Genuity Roundup Ready2 Yield soybeans, which continue to deliver a greater than 4-Bu-per-acre advantage compared with the original Roundup Ready soybeans
• Although Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans tolerate both glyphosate and dicamba herbicides, the use of dicamba herbicide over the top of Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans remains in the late stage of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) review, and it is not currently approved by the EPA

High Oleic Oils

• For years, companies have tried to phase out margarine-based oils and fats from the food processing industry through numerous innovations. One such innovation is the high oleic oils
• High oleic oils are rich in mono-saturated fat content and do not contain trans fats, unlike the partially hydrogenated fats used in the food processing industry 
• Oils with high oleic contents are heat stable, and thus, can be reused 
• In the case of soybean oil, which is highly rancid in nature, compared to the other vegetable oils, this is likely to be a breakthrough, if the researchers successfully manage to increase the shelf life of the product
• Many US-based fast food joints have shifted in using high oleic oils as the preferred edible oil 

Why You Should Buy This Report

The soybean oil market analysis provides information on key industry trends, drivers and constraints, the regional market outlook of APAC, Europe and North America, and Porter’s five forces analysis of the global soybean oil market in each region. It provides insight into the supply trends and presents a SWOT analysis of major suppliers. Further, the soybean oil market report breaks down the cost structure for different sub-categories and compares the best sourcing, pricing and contract models.