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Soda Ash

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Category Alerts


CATEGORY ALERTS

Price adjustments to annual contracts amid high energy costs

September 06, 2022
alert level: Medium
CATEGORY ALERTS

Shandong Haihua to shut soda ash plant for maintenance in July 2022

July 18, 2022
alert level: Low
CATEGORY ALERTS

Price adjustments to annual contracts amid high energy costs

September 06, 2022
alert level: Medium

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Soda Ash Market Monitoring Dashboard


Price Trend
370
Sep-23
USD/MT
History Forecast

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Soda Ash Industry Benchmarks


Savings Achieved

(in %)

The average annual savings achieved in Soda Ash category is 6.50%

Payment Terms

(in days)

The industry average payment terms in Soda Ash category for the current quarter is 75.0 days

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    Soda Ash market report transcript


    Global Market Outlook on Soda Ash

    MARKET OVERVIEW

    Global Capacity: 81.55 MMT (2023-F)

    Global Demand: 55.57 MMT (2023-F)

    Global Demand CAGR: 2–3 percent (2023–2026)

    • Global demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2-3 percent through 2023–2026

    • Demand growth was observed to decrease from Q2 2022 post the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The trend is expected to continue in 2023

    soda-ash

    Soda Ash Demand Market Outlook

    • The global soda ash market is well supplied and is expected to meet the current demand. Due to low demand from Q2 2022, the operating rates have dropped, and supplier margins have been impacted

    • Capacity addition by Solvay and Ciner in the US by 2025-2026 period, will increase exports from the region.

    Global Capacity–Demand Analysis : Soda Ash

    Capacity additions planned by Genesis Alkali  and Ciner group in the US will increase global capacities by ~6.65 MMT by 2025-2026 period. Demand is anticipated to pick up slowly from H2 2023, with recovery in major economies post high inflation, but will reach 2019 levels by 2024/2025.

    Market Outlook

    Capacity Dynamics

    • Globally, approx. 30 percent of the installed capacities produce soda ash naturally, by mining, from the Trona reserves, while the rest is manufactured synthetically (mainly, the Solvay process)

    Capacity Additions

    • Capacity additions are expected in the US and Asian market. Nearly 8 Million MT are expected during 2023-2026 period. 1.2 Million MT is expected to be added in China, while 5.6 Million MT is expected to be added in the US during 2025-2026 period

    Demand Dynamics

    • Asia is expected to be the major demand driver for the soda ash market with nearly 67 percent market share in 2023. The current trend is expected to continue

    Supplier Landscape

    • The suppliers are highly consolidated in the US and Europe, while relatively fragmented in Asia.

    Engagement Outlook

    • Increasing exports from Turkey: Exports from Turkey have witnessed uptrend from 1.2 MMT in 2015 to 4.1 MMT in 2021. Exports to the Middle East and Asia have doubled, amid increased exports to Europe, which has been major consumers of Turkish soda ash. Buyers in Europe could consider Turkey as alternate sourcing destination

    • Mostly buyers adopt domestic sourcing, with 1-2 years contract widely adopted in the market

    Industry Drivers and Constraints : Soda Ash

    Drivers

    • End-use growth

    –The glass industry is the largest demand-driving segment (approx. 50 percent), which is expected to grow at a CAGR of approx. 3 percent from 2019 to 2023, driven by construction and automotive segments

    –The soaps & detergents segment, where approx. 20 percent of the soda ash finds its use, is expected to grow, with a CAGR of 4 percent from 2019 to 2023

    –Growth is driving sufficient capacity additions in the Middle East and India

    –Other smaller segments, like paper & pulp, water treatment, and the chemicals industry, are expected to grow with a CAGR of approx. 2 percent during the same period

    Constraints

    • Higher carbon credit costs in Europe

    –Rising raw material, energy, gas and carbon credit costs, and strong demand are the major factors in Europe, which could lead to increase in producers’ price

    • Rising input costs

    –In Europe, higher contract prices are anticipated, due to stronger coking coal and energy prices, along with higher rates in the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which have squeezed profit margins for the region’s soda ash producers

    • Limited technology providers

    –Technology and equipment providers for soda ash, using the natural process, is limited to the US, while soda ash by Hou’s process is limited to China

    –For the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia, service providers, like Jacobs Engineering and AECOM Process Technologies, are to be contracted, since there no local service providers

     

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