Rice

Global Rice Market Outlook

• The rice market is estimated to be valued at about $299 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 2.2 percent between 2023 and 2028, driven by strong demand as a staple in consuming regions and expanding applications of processed rice

• 2023/24 rice production is expected to witness an uptick by about 2.5% from the previous year, driven by increased output from markets like India and Thailand. However, weather based and economic challenges in major growing/exporting markets like China and Pakistan will contribute to any lowering in production

• The key factors driving the growth include the consumption of rice as a staple food and demand for certain rice varieties from regions, like the Middle East, for use in delicacies and during festive seasons

Global Supply–Demand Analysis : Rice

• 2023/24 rice production is expected to witness an uptick by about 2.5% from the previous year, driven by increased output from markets like India and Thailand. However, weather based and economic challenges in major growing/exporting markets like China and Pakistan will contribute to any lowering in production

• Although Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia rank highest in production, their consumption volume is equivalent. Therefore, these countries do not set the trends in the rice market as opposed to Thailand, Vietnam, and India, who are major players

• In H2-2022, a large acreage of farmland in the world’s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods

• The rice market CAGR is expected to be around 2.2% between 2023 and 2028

• In the case of major rice producers, like Bangladesh, Indonesia, and China, the consumption volume is close to or higher than the production volume. Therefore, these regions do not play a major role in the global export market

• Countries, like India, Vietnam, and Thailand, who produce rice in excess of domestic demand, are the key regions influencing global rice trends

Global Demand Analysis : Rice

• China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of rice. The country does not export rice, as the local demand is high

• India and Vietnam are the two major rice exporters among the top five consumers of rice. Thailand is the world’s sixth largest rice producer and consumer as well as a major exporter

• The rice is mainly consumed as a staple food in these countries, and also for the use in delicacies, like biryani

Est. Global Utilization of Rice (2023)

• The total supply of rice is estimated to drop by approx. 1.7 percent compared to last year

• The global consumption of rice is expected to increase by approx. 0.2 percent compared to last year

• The global exports of rice is projected to dip by approx. 2 percent compared to last year

• The global-ending stocks of is seen to contract by approx. 6.6 percent compared to last year

Est. Rice Consumption by Country (2023)

• Among the top five producers of rice, India and Vietnam are the major exporters, where local consumption does not override the export demand

• These countries, along with Thailand, normally influence the global market trends for rice

• The local demand mainly comes from the utilization of rice as a staple food and in special dishes as a delicacy

Global Rice Trade Dynamics 

• India accounts for 37 percent of global rice exports followed by Thailand which accounts for 14 percent. India’s rice exports is likely to witness some restrictions owing to the recent export duty of 20% levied by the Indian government in order to stabilize the domestic market

• The export share of Thailand has increased only by 4–5 percent over a five-year period, while India has grown by 1–2 percent and stands as the world’s top exporter of rice

• Thailand had been major sourcing destination, due to the potential for Thai aromatic rice to be used as a substitute for Indian basmati rice, with the former being available at more competitive prices

• China is the largest importer of rice, despite being the top rice producer, due to high demand

• Nigerian rice imports have dropped by 2 percent over a five-year period, as the country aims to restrict imports and become self-sufficient

• The Saudi Arabian imports have increased by 0.4 percent in five years, as the region is a major importer of basmati rice, which is used in the preparation of delicacies during the festive seasons

Cost Structure Analysis - Rice

• The surging fertilizer costs and fuel costs are likely to challenge rice growers in 2023/24 and add to input costs. The higher milling /operations cost also supports any price increases in rice production