Poultry

Global Market Outlook on Poultry

GLOBAL PRODUCTION (2023E)

Poultry: 102.942 MMT

GLOBAL CONSUMPTION (2023E)

Poultry: 100.348 MMT

KEY SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS/DRIVERS

Feed cost subject to drastic volatility

Increased protein consumption and growing population

Status quo

Avian Influenza effects

• The global production and consumption of poultry are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.8 percent during 2022–2026. Rise in demand is driven by increased protein consumption globally and growing demand for cage-free range of poultry. Further, recovering demand from the HoReCa and retail sector post-pandemic will strengthen the market

Supply–Demand Analysis : Poultry

• The global poultry market was valued at $2.93 billion in 2022, and it is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 3 percent to reach a valuation of $3.29 billion in 2026

• The US, Brazil, and China are the major leaders in the poultry industry occupying nearly 48 percent of the global market share

Market Outlook (2022)

• Poultry consumption witnessed a consecutive growth, due to increased income and lower beef and pork availability in China and the US

• The 2022 year opens with multiple cases of avian flu being reported from farms in the US, Canada, India, and the EU. However, we anticipate that the concerns will be addressed at the earliest. The H2 2022 outlook remains strongly positive for the poultry sector

• Asian producers are likely to increase their competitiveness by increasing integration and more consolidation. Mainly, cooperatives are expected to gain efficiency in producing poultry products

Poultry Market Analysis – US 

Production

• Domestic production is forecast to increase by ~1.2 percent in 2022, following an increasing trend, attributed to increased investments for higher flock production and supported by profitability of the industry.

• Most of the broiler meat producers are vertically integrated owning and operating feed mills, processing plants and further processing units. However, breeding and bird growing are mostly outsourced

Consumption

• As the COVID-19 restrictions have been eased in majority of the states, domestic demand from the food service and retail industry is forecast to increase by 2.1 percent in 2022 Y-o-Y to 17.2 MMT

• Tyson Foods is set to expand its Texas and Mississippi facilities to cater to rising demand for poultry products in 2022

• Consumption to gain momentum in the next few years as people include more egg and poultry in their meals as source of protein

Trade

• China and Latin America are major markets for the US poultry products with exports expected to improve, following COVID-19, driven supply chain disruptions in 2021

• Prevalence of HPAI outbreaks in the EU and Asian markets, like Korea and Japan in 2021, supported the US trade activity

Poultry Cost Structure Analysis

• Feed cost, housing and equipment costs accounts for major percent in the egg value chain. The recent surge in feed costs is likely to impact the poultry prices.

• The feed, housing and equipment costs constitute the major cost, followed by operating cost, consisting of maintenance, livestock expense, insurances and taxes

• Components like labor, machinery, packaging and transportation vary with specific products (like dried/frozen/yolk/albumen products)

• Any flood or drought affects the pasture lands and influences the feed cost

Key factors tracked for pricing estimations

• Total annual production, capacity utilization, cost components (fixed cost, operating cost. overhead cost) and profit margins