Potatoes

Global Market Outlook on Potatoes

Global production: 356 MMT Supply Growth (2022/2023): 2 percent decline

Price projection (2023): 12–15 percent increase

Key buying months in the top-producing regions: July–November

• Global potato production is projected to contract 2 percent Y-o-Y for the 2022/23 season, due to lower output expected from the US and Europe, due to lower yields on account of adverse heatwaves stressing yield coupled with the surge in agricultural input cost inflation, such as energy and fertilizers along with shifting acreage to other crops such as grains and oilseeds with demand from downstream processors estimated to rise driven by a recovery in foodservice consumption; while higher input costs and logistic constraints are seen to raise prices.

Potatoes – Global Trade Dynamics 

• Recovering global demand for potato from the foodservice sector is seen to raise exports which had contracted the previous year

• The recent deal between China and the UK for exports of seed potatoes to Europe indicates China’s attempts to diversify secure and strengthen trade relations, owing to the US–China trade conflict and re-route trade channels for agricultural products to other markets

• China does not allow imports of fresh potatoes, owing to sanitary and phyto-sanitary concerns

• India contributes to only about 1 percent of the global exports, in spite of being the second largest producer

• The Netherlands and Belgium are the leading importers of potatoes globally. More than 65 percent of the imports are consumed by the processing sector

• Malaysia, Russia, Vietnam, and Pakistan account for about 62–65 percent of China’s exports. The major export destinations of the US potatoes are Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan

Potatoes Cost Structure Analysis

• High inflation is anticipated for the production of potatoes in 2022 mainly driven by the expected surge in fertilizers, energy, transportation and labor costs. With high potato storage costs in Europe expected to remain elevated due to the prevailing energy crisis in the continent

• The North American Potato Market News reported that the cost to grow potatoes is forecasted to rise 15%-20% in 2022, driven by increases in fertilizer, fuel and labor expenses

Processed Vegetables Industry Drivers and Constraints 

Drivers 

• Year Around Availability and Convenience: Given factors, like seasonality and perishability, processing make it possible to preserve and consume vegetables throughout the year

• Trade Liberalization and Foreign Investments: Incentives for import/export of commodities and linking farmers to high income consumers globally help to boost trade and market

• Reduces Perishability and Wastage: Processing increases shelf life, facilitates transport worldwide, helps to expand export base with reduced spoilage

• Globalization: Increasing consumer awareness and immigration of varied ethnic groups drive imports and processing of non-locally produced vegetable products that need to be transported and stored efficiently

• Rise in per Capita Income: Urbanization, changing lifestyle, increasing awareness, focus on health and wellness, higher disposable income, and evolving consumption habits are increasing the demand for minimally processed and convenient to consume vegetables

Constraints

• Supply Uncertainty: There is no guarantee of consistent supply of vegetables, which depend on weather and harvest. The producing region’s economic condition could cause price volatility, especially vegetables, imported from the developing countries

• Capital Intensive: Decrease in conventionally processed vegetables, owing to an increasing preference for minimally processed vegetable products, call for processors to keep up with evolving trends.

• The switching cost is high and can be afforded only by large players, leaving the small and medium-level processors at a disadvantage

• Access to Raw Materials: New entrants face challenges in securing raw materials supply at early stages of operations and are prone to high cost fluctuation risks