Pork

Global Market Outlook on Pork

Q1 and early Q2 witnessed a sharp decline in North American pork processing capacity due to COVID-19 pandemic. Pork processing speed was reduced due to closing of processors to prevent disease transmission.

However, early June witnessed US pork processing rebound to near 2019 levels.

Further, June also witnessed larger shipment of Pork to China, close to 0.129 MMT

The 2020 hog price forecast is reduced on current price weakness and supply pressure. The 2021 hog price forecast is also reduced on higher hog supplies.

Pork Trade Analysis

Pork market depends on the demand from recovering markets, like Brazil, since the consumption levels in China are likely to reduce in 2018.

Pork production relies on the global consumption levels. Pork demand in China is likely to reduce in FY 2018, due to a shift in demand for beef and poultry, since the increase in the per capita income.

• The EU is by far the largest exporter of pork, with an increase of 46%, between 2011 and 2016
• Export volume from the US have been mostly consistent with only an increase of 1% between 2011 and 2016
• Major markets for pork are China, Japan, and Mexico
• Production in countries like Russia is likely to rise by 0.5–1%, owing to the rise in investments and improved technology
• Consumption and production are likely to recover in Brazil with the recovery in economy

Key Producing Regions-Pork

Procuring from US, EU or Russia is feasible since the production levels are high. Prices in EU are lower with regard to exports, owing to the abundance in supply.

Pork is majorly produced and in China, due to the increasing trend for consuming a healthy diet. Major pork by product are also located in China, since the Chinese are not picky and use almost all parts of the pig or hog for consumption purposes.

Regional Overview of Pork-China

Exports to China likely to rise in the short term, due to the sudden surge in demand for pork and processed pork products.

About 1–2% decrease in the production of pork in 2018 is expected, since the consumption is likely to decrease, due to a shift in the demand to other meat products.

• China is the major consumer and producer of Pork, followed by the European Union and US
• Investments by Chinese hog farmers on facilities is likely to increase with the anticipation to capture a bigger market share in world market
• Imports are likely to remain on the higher side throughout 2017, whereas, in 2018, they are likely to reduce, due to a decrease in the demand

Regional Overview of Pork-EU

Abundance in supply for export and comparatively low prices make EU one of the best sourcing destinations for pork.

No major growth or decrease is expected in production or consumption in the year 2018.

• The EU will continue to be one of the major exporters of pork, since it has well established facilities and the prices are relatively lower due to effective production process
• China is likely to remain the most preferred export destination despite likely reduction in the demand for pork in China during 2018
• Japan, South Korea, and emerging markets like Brazil are likely to be the other preferred destinations for export
• Import of Pork in EU is quite negligible when compared to other markets in the world, since they are self sufficient when it comes to production