Pork

Global Market Outlook on Pork

• The global supply in 2022-23 is estimated to touch 124 million tons CWE, slightly higher on a y/y basis.

• The global consumption is estimated to increase to 113 million tons CWE as opposed to 112 tons CWE in 2022.

Supply & Demand Analysis : Pork

• The global supply (carry-in stocks, production and imports) for 2023 is estimated to increase as compared to 2022, to 124 million tons CWE, led by a higher output from China, and a slight reduction from EU. The consumption is estimated at 113 million tons CWE for 2023, higher than the 2022 consumption of 112 million tons CWE. The concerns of African Swine Flu appears eroding at the moment and producers are looking for competitive market space

• An increase in feed costs is likely to impact the demand.

• The US Hog slaughter has exceeded forecast in Jan 2023. It's possible that the winter weather disrupted the flow of hogs, but it's more likely that there were more hogs than needed.  Moreover, hog prices appear to be suffering as a result of the increasing hog slaughter, as more pork led to decreased hog price; witnessed by lean hog price decline of around 14.6% m/m, while pork price declined by 8.7% m/m.

• The US Pork production for the first quarter is down 32 million pounds to 7.010 billion pounds, up 1.5% over the same period last year, due to anticipated lower dressed weights, comparative reduction in pork availability along with the expected Easter demand will pull up the price of pork by Q1 2023.

Supply Overview of Pork

• Pork production is expected to reach 110 MMT CWE in 2023, recovering from swine fever. Though the demand is expected to be low until Q1 2023, overshadowed by the availability of grains due to the Ukrainian crisis.

• China is the major consumer and producer of pork, followed by the EU and the US

• Increase in production volumes from China will cover for the drop in US and EU production in 2022

• Sudden increase in pork production has led to the processing capacities to lag behind

Pork Trade Analysis

In 2023, the Chinese pork imports are expected higher by nearly 4 percent Y/Y to 2.2 MMT on stronger consumer demand following the end of COVID restrictions. However, a rise in the domestic pork production is expected to limit the imports of pork meat.

• The EU is by far the largest exporter of pork products with a share of 62 percent by value in 2022

• Export volume from the US has been mostly consistent in 2022. Major markets for pork are China, Japan and Mexico, which is expected to extend into 2023 as well.

• Chinese pork imports are expected to slowdown in 2023 owing to a surge in the domestic production of hog meat.

• Consumption and production is likely to recover in Brazil with the recovery in economy

Key Producing Regions-Pork

• Procuring from the US, EU or Russia is feasible since the production levels are high. Prices in EU are lower with regard to exports owing to the abundance in supply. Pork is majorly produced and in China, due to the increasing trend for consuming a healthy diet. Major pork by product are also located in China since the Chinese are not picky and use almost all parts of the pig or hog for consumption purposes.

Price Trend and Price Outlook: US

Market Analysis

• It has been noted that 23 percent of the commercial pork produced in the United States is anticipated to be sold abroad in 2023, amounting to 6.4 billion pounds. The following are the quarterly export forecasts: 1.6 billion pounds were spent in the first quarter, 1.6 billion pounds in the second quarter, 1.5 billion pounds in the third quarter, and 1.7 billion pounds in the fourth quarter.

• China is stockpiling pork reserves to support hog prices and boost the producer margins. The grains supply remains tight in the current marketing year. However, the demand is likely to bounce back, as Chinese cities lift the lockdown restrictions