Palm Kernel Oil

Palm Kernel Oil Global Market Outlook:

• Palm kernel oil growth figures in 2022-23 are forecasted to be slightly higher compared to last year.

• The global palm kernel figures are estimated to be at 8.85 MMT in 2022-23. Indonesia and Malaysia are the top two producers, which have a surplus to export. Thailand and Nigeria, although produce relative volume, but do not export as extensively as Indonesia or Malaysia

Key Palm Kernel Oil Producing Countries

• Indonesia (59 percent)

• Malaysia (24 percent)

• Nigeria (4.4 percent)

• Thailand (4.3 percent)

Global Palm Kernel Oil Trade Dynamics

• Indonesia accounts for over half of the global palm kernel oil exports. The global palm kernel oil trade is based out of SE Asian countries.

• The China, the US, and the EU are the largest palm kernel oil importers

• Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest exporters of palm kernel oil, while China, the US, and the EU are the largest importers

• There was an alarming reduction of 13 percent of Indonesian exports in last year and 2022 s experiencing the same decline with the current value of 21 percent. This downtrend is primarily due to the export ban, which Indonesia had in the recent times

• Demand for lauric oils from Europe has been decreasing in the last two years, due to rising prices. However, import demand from the region is estimated to rise in 2022-23.

Porter's Analysis on Palm Kernel Oil

The suppliers have better negotiation power, as they are fragmented, but integrated players and volumes are at risk. The intensity of rivalry is medium to high in the palm kernel oil industry, as the product differentiation is less.

Supplier Power

• The suppliers have higher negotiation power than buyers, as the market supply is volatile and demand is high

• The suppliers are fragmented and volumes are smaller from buyers that are not large in scale or integrated

Barriers to New Entrants

• Palm kernel oil refineries require capital and equipment, and the industry runs on economies of scale

• Palm and its derivatives also have a lot of environmental concerns, and hence, the scope for new plantations is high

• Hence, the barriers to new entrants are high

Intensity of Rivalry

• Palm kernel oil is mainly used in oleochemical industries. The supply of palm kernel oil depends on the yield related to weather conditions

• The rivalry in the palm kernel oil industry is medium to high, as there are alternate substitutes, such as palm, coconut oil, etc.

Threat of Substitutes

• Palm kernel oil cannot be easily substituted by palm and other vegetable or animal fats, due to its high lauric content. However, they are being substituted in low quality soap products by other oil and their processed variations

• Palm stearin, coconut oil, and other vegetable oil-based substitution take place depending on the price spread

Buyer Power

• The major buyers of palm kernel oil are the oleochemical companies and personal care companies

• They do not influence the prices as much as the suppliers. The prices are driven by seasonal and fundamental factors