Explosives
Market, Supplier, Risk and
Competitive Intelligence

Industry Outlook & Drivers

Global Market Outlook on Explosives

• The demand for explosives is driven by rising commodity consumption levels from China, India and other Asian countries from the second half of 2018 and 2019
• A constant rise in commodity demand, coupled with increasing mineral output, and declining ore heads are the key drivers for explosives

Global Explosives - Drivers and Constraints

Drivers

Increase in Commodity Demand

• Commodities, such as coal, iron ore, etc., have a positive impact on demand for explosives, due to the expansion of mining activity

Rise in Commodity Prices

• It results in high profit margins for mining companies, which triggers Greenfield and Brownfield mine project expansion

Declining Ore Grades at the Surface

• The continuous decline (in the ore grades of both surface and underground mining) has led to increased exploration activity, which, in turn, acts as a driver for the rise in demand from the explosives

• Copper head grades are expected to decline ~18–20 percent in 2017–2024 in the South American region, while gold head grades are expected to decline by ~15–17 percent in the same period

Constraints

Decrease in Commodity Demand

• It leads to a fall in the explosive market

Decrease in Mineral Output Growth Rate

• It will result in a reduction in mineral output from mines, adversely impacting explosives demand

Cyclical Market Condition

• The manufacturers usually show considerable constraint, in terms of tire pricing, as the industry faces an unpredicted demand fluctuation in a short span

Regulations and Complexity in Transportation and Logistics

• Increasing security and safety regulations have had a negative impact on the sales and supply of explosive products, especially in mining destinations, such as Africa, LATAM, etc.
• Such stringent regulations affect the supply security and have impacted blasting services cost significantly

Market Driver - Commodity Price

• Prices of key commodities are the best indicators of mining activities and which, in turn, evinces the demand for explosives

• In Q4 2018, from October 2018 to November 2018, apart from iron ore and copper (which is expected to increase by an average of 5–6 percent, average commodity prices for the rest are expected to decrease by an average of 3–4 percent compared to the last quarters' average

• Demand for commodities increased tremendously, as the economy recovered from the economic recession in 2009. 2010 and 2011 saw a boom in mining activity, due to high demand for raw materials
• Late 2013 and 2014 witnessed a slowdown in mining, resulting in the reduced demand for explosives
• Again, 2014–2015 witnessed reduced demand; however, it is expected to uptrend in the coming years. The average commodity prices for the rest are expected to decrease by 8–9 percent in H1 2019 compared to the same period in the previous year