Beef Global Market Outlook

  • Global production and consumption of beef is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.5 percent during 2014 to 2020. Increase in supply is driven by rising demand due to increasing status quo and awareness on beef protein content. The beef market is expected to move from “over supplied” in 2016 to a “balanced scenario” post 2020
  • Global beef production is driven by major beef producing regions like the US, Brazil, European Union, China, India and Australia, accounting for ~71 percent of total production

beef-global-market-size

  • Beef prices exhibit seasonality due to dependency of biological and market fundamental on climatic conditions
  • Cattle spends most of its time in outdoor feedlots before reaching the market (the last six months in the lifecycle at farm). The conditions (weather) during that period may affect the cattle’s weight, and in turn, supply
  • Scope for higher fast food sales during spring and early summer can push beef prices higher; low fast food sales in the winter may weigh on prices. Buyers can make use of such price seasonality to secure better prices

Global Beef Supply–Demand Analysis 

  • Global production and consumption are expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.12 percent and 1.03 percent during 2012 – 2019, respectively. The beef market is expected to move from over supplied in 2018 to a balanced scenario post 2020. Consumption of beef is increasing in China, as consumer preference is shifting to beef from other meat products

Market Outlook – 2018/2019

  • The global production is likely to witness an uptrend of about 2 percent, and India will play a major role in exporting the largest quantity of beef, overtaking Brazil and Australia
  • Consumption of beef will continue to increase globally; the US and EU are major drivers for beef consumption
  • Currently, the beef market is over supplied, where there is enough beef for everyone to have 12.25 pounds of beef/year

Global Beef Trade Dynamics 

India, Brazil, Australia, the US, New Zealand, and Argentina are the largest beef exporting countries, accounting for approx. 75 percent of the global exports, while the US is the largest importer of beef. Following the US, China has been increasing imports of beef of 14 percent of global imports.

Supply–Demand Analysis-US

  • Increasing herd expansion will support domestic demand in the next 10 years 
  • Consumers consider beef worth their money, increasing beef consumption (CAGR of 0.17 percent) in the last six years. Increased consumption requires the US to import more beef to match their domestic demand

Demand Trends

  • The US beef consumption grew at a CAGR of 0.79 percent from 2012/13 to 2017/18. In 2018, the US consumption is expected to increase by 1.3 percent compared to the previous year
  • Since 1950’s, beef production per animal has increased 2.6 times, due to increased hormone injection into cattle to increase their carcass weight

Supply Situation

  • The US beef supply grew at a CAGR of 0.73 percent from 2012/13 to 2017/18. In 2018, the US supply is expected to increase by 2.9 percent compared to the previous year
  • Good climatic conditions are expected to drive steady growth in the US beef supply in the next five years, as good climatic conditions increases the availability of feed for the cattle

Trade barriers/regulations

  • The export demand for beef has been in an increasing trend due to increased awareness of protein content and consumption
  • The trade war between US and China witnessed higher domestic consumption of pork, resulting in an over supply of beef