Global Market Outlook on Ammonia

  • The global demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3 percent during 2016–2022: The impetus for this growth comes from demand in Asia, which is expected to grow at 3–4 percent, due to increased demand from the agricultural segment
  • The non-fertilizer sector accounts for 13 percent of the global ammonium-consuming segment 
  • Increasing mining activities in the Asian and LATAM markets are expected to drive the demand in these regions

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Demand Market Outlook

  • The global supply is expected to improve in the next 2–3 years, due to capacity additions, mainly in the US 
  • This will increase the availability of ammonium for the export market 
  • A major demand is expected to come from Asian and the US markets, since most of the derivative units (fertilizer, direct application, and industrial usage) are lined up in the US and Asia. The fertilizer (3–4 percent growth) and industrial sector (3–4 percent growth) would be the key segments driving the demand. Around 10 MMT capacity additions are planned for the fertilizer production

Global Market Size: Ammonia

  • Demand to grow at a CAGR of 5.2 percent: The total global demand is expected to increase from 186 MMT to 234 MMT by 2022
  • The fertilizer segment to drive the demand: Significant demand is expected from the fertilizer segment with the growing population in the developing region. NPK/NP fertilizer contributes to a major portion of the demand 
  • The US import dependency to reduce: The US has remained as the biggest importer in the past decade. However, moving forward, the US dependency on imports is expected to decline sharply, ending the era of massive imports from Trinidad and Tobago. This is due to the huge capacity additions expected to come online during 2017–2022

Global Capacity: Demand Analysis

  • Huge capacity additions in the US, Russia, and Asia: More than a dozen of standalone and integrated ammonium plants are nearing completion, and it is expected to bring additional ammonia available in the merchant market. Thereby, reducing the pressure on the ammonium prices

Global Trade Dynamics

  • Globally, only 12 percent of the ammonia produced is traded, and the rest is used captively to convert into nitrogen-based fertilizers
  • North America: Currently, the US imports almost 3.7 MMT of ammonia, however, moving forward, imports are expected to come down, due to huge capacity additions of around 5 MMT lined up for the US, based on shale gas
  • EU: Russia is expected to remain ammonia surplus (4.3 MMT excess), and it is expected to cater to the merchant market
  • Asia: The Middle East is expected to remain as the key supplier of ammonia to India

Global Exports

  • Excess demand in the US and established trade route between the US and Canada lead to trade ease between these regions. Canada exports around 30 percent of the ammonia produced to the US market 
  • Capacity expansion in Russia has significantly added to the availability of ammonia in the merchant market, and it is expected to continue in the near future