Aluminum
Market, Supplier, Risk and
Competitive Intelligence

Industry Outlook

Aluminum Market Forecast and Global Outlook

• Asia will continue to dominate the market, in terms of growth prospects until 2021 
• Curtailment measures by suppliers and lower demand from the automotive sector will impact the market; however, demand is expected to be driven by construction, electrical engineering sectors
• The Aluminum market analysis shows that the Market Drivers include Downstream demand, Technological advancements, and Demand for light weight and energy-efficient materials
• The Aluminum industry outlook shows that the Major End-Users are Transport: 28 percent Construction: 23 percent Electrical: 13 percent Packaging: 12 percent Machinery: 10 percent
• Highest Production Regions; China, Russia, Canada, India, UAE. The 
• Highest Consumption Regions: China, US, Germany, Japan, UAE
• Highest Market Maturity Region: APAC, Americas
• The aluminum market analysis shows that the major cost components are Raw Materials: 45–55 percent Electricity: 20–27 percent

Global Aluminium Market Overview - Production & Consumption

• The aluminum market is expected to see a supply surplus scenario from 2020, on the account of a fall in demand from the downstream sectors. 
• The global production of primary aluminum is expected to be 10-11 percent in 2020. China, the largest producer of aluminum, is likely to witness a downtrend in production due to the closure of plants by large players, like Xinfa group and Hongqiao Group 
• The production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2–3 percent in the forecasted period, aided by increased production in China, Iran, and Indonesia. In China, companies, like East Hope, Hangzhou Jinjiang Group, Baoshan Iron and Steel, Inner Mongolia Mengtai Group, are planning to increase production. Iran’s SALCO aluminum smelter is expected to start by end of 2020. Indonesia’s Asahan Aluminium (Inalum) also plans to ramp up production

Global Market Overview - Regional Breakup

• Following regions witnessed a downtrend in production Y-o-Y: China (1.9 percent), Latin America (7.3 percent), Europe (2.2 percent), whereas North America witnessed a slight production increase by 1 percent and production in Asia (excl. China) witnessed a production increase, due to increasing in supply from the Middle East 

• The global aluminum installed capacity has declined, as China geared up for the new air pollution prevention and control action plan. The production in Latin America decreased, mainly on the account of production curtailment by Albras Alumínio Brasileiro 

• Production in North America increased, on the account of improved production from the U.S., with companies, like Century Aluminum, Magnitude 7 Metals & Alcoa (Warrick smelter) restarting their production 

• Primary aluminum consumption in China decreased by 1.53 percent, amounting to 36.07 MMT, on the account of reduced demand from the automotive sector, as the government ended subsidies for cheap and low-quality hybrids and electric cars. Similarly, demand witnessed a downtrend in Japan, Korea, and India 

• The import tariff by the EU on unwrought aluminum has not affected demand but has led to increasing in imports. Currently, around 74 percent of primary aluminum demand is met through imports. The demand in North America witnessed a slight increase of 1 percent in H1 2019, on the account of increased demand from the automotive sector, but is anticipated to fall on a yearly basis with respect to 2018 

Global Market Overview - End-use

• The transport industry, a major driver for diecast aluminum, aluminum forgings and aluminum flat-rolled products demand faced a slowdown at the beginning of 2020 due to reduced demand. The global production of motor vehicles fell by approximately 3–5 percent
• The construction sector is expected to be a major driver for demand led by emerging economies building infrastructure and increasing shift to Green construction technology, where aluminum fabrications, Aluminum Castings, aluminum extrusions and aluminum profiles are a key construction materials component 
• The demand from the packaging industry is expected to increase, as industries look for alternatives for plastic packaging

Price Trend and Forecast

• Aluminum prices trading at LME have remained under selling pressure and fell by 6.3 percent in July 2018 and averaged to settle at $2099/MT.
• Aluminum prices continue to remain under selling pressure following escalating trade tensions between the United States and China as US President Donald Trump's administration pledged to raise the proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from an initial 10 percent has reignited fears of an escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies
• Moreover, China reported a strong rate of production in the first five months of 2018 as total Aluminum production rose 13.6 million tonnes, up 1.4 percent from year ago levels, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed. Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that, global output, excluding China averaged 75,800 tonnes in May, which is still higher than the 74,100-tonne average last year
• The Aluminum industry outlook shows that the major price drivers are Fluctuation, LME Aluminum Stock, Global Supply & Demand, Global Economy, Chinese Supply & Demand and Energy Prices.
• Aluminum price trading at LME have consolidated sideways and stood almost unchanged at $1849/MT in April 2019 •Aluminum prices were affected by the sentiments in the global equity markets

Why You Should Buy This Aluminum Market Report

• The aluminum market analysis report highlights the regional aluminum market outlook,  aluminum market size, aluminum market share, aluminum market forecast, and aluminum market trends for the Americas, Europe, Australia and APAC region. 
• Overview of the global Non-Ferrous Metals, Minerals and Mining Aluminum market, major cost components involved in Aluminum production, ket mergers and acquisitions and procurement strategies.
• It lists out the factors affecting the Aluminum Industry and Key Drivers and Constraints such as end-user demand, environmental concerns, dollar exchange rate, etc.
• Porter’s five force analysis of the global Aluminum industry
• Key supplier profiles and SWOT analysis of players like UC Rusal, Chalco, Alcoa, etc.