El Nino 2015 - Updated Crop Prospects

In collaboration with S. Nagarajan, Domain Lead

Early this year, India's weather office, India Meteorological Department (IMD), said that monsoon rainfall is expected to be 88% of LPA (Long Period Average), which potentially indicates that 2015 could turn to be a year of drought.

Even though monsoon was better than expected, Central and Northern states experienced deficit rainfall due to El Nino weather pattern. Key agricultural states such as Punjab and Maharashtra were among the most affected states with rainfall deficit of 39% and 32% respectively. Oil crops, wheat and sugarcane are expected to face supply crunch due to rainfall shortage.

On the other hand, normal rainfall in Southern and Eastern parts of the country has improved the crop prospects of chili, rice and pulses. Crops in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are expected to be unaffected this year owing to normal rainfall till date. Moreover these states also receive rainfall from North-east monsoon in the last quarter of a calendar year - though NE monsoon is known to play truant.

Here is the Updated Crop Prospects - A based on the rainfall received from June 1 to Sept 9 (Click here to read the previous blog post that was published in June)