Boeing Forecasts $8 Trillion Market Demand for 42,595 Commercial Jets by 2042

As international air travel rebounds and domestic flights return to pre-pandemic numbers, Boeing anticipates a worldwide need for 42,595 new commercial jets by the year 2042, amounting to an $8 trillion market.

The company disclosed this projection in its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which forecasts the demand for commercial airplanes and services over the next two decades. This report was released ahead of the Paris Air Show.

Boeing's latest CMO emerges three years after the global fleet was largely immobilized by the pandemic. The primary insights revealed are:

• Passenger air travel growth surpassing the worldwide economic growth rate of 2.6%.

• The global fleet almost doubling in size to 48,600 jets, growing at an annual rate of 3.5%.

• Approximately 50% of the global fleet will be replaced by airlines with new, fuel-efficient aircraft.

Brad McMullen, Boeing's Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing, expressed that the aviation industry has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability in overcoming the unprecedented challenges posed by the pandemic. He emphasized the key role of a rising middle class, sustainability initiatives, low-cost carriers, and air cargo demands in shaping the future of air travel.

The CMO further breaks down regional demand and trends through 2042:

• The Asia-Pacific region, with China accounting for half, will constitute over 40% of the global demand.

• The fleet in South Asia will grow at an annual rate exceeding 7%, the fastest globally, with India accounting for over 90% of the region’s passenger traffic.

• North America and Europe will each represent approximately 20% of the worldwide demand.

• By 2042, over 40% of the single-aisle fleet will be operated by low-cost carriers, a significant increase from 10% two decades ago.

• After excluding Russia and Central Asia in the previous year's CMO due to regional uncertainties, these regions have been included under Eurasia in this year's forecast, expected to represent around 3% of the global fleet by 2042.

• The commercial services sector is projected to be worth $3.8 trillion, encompassing digital solutions for enhanced efficiency and cost-reduction, demand for parts and supply chain solutions, an array of maintenance and modification options, and specialized training for pilots and technicians.

Additionally, Boeing predicts specific demands for various aircraft models over the next 20 years:

• Single-aisle airplanes will make up over 75% of new deliveries, exceeding 32,000 airplanes.

• Widebody jets will account for nearly 20% of new deliveries, with more than 7,400 airplanes facilitating new market access and more efficient service on existing routes for airlines.

• Air cargo is set to grow faster than global trade, with the need for 2,800 dedicated freighters, including over 900 new widebodies as well as converted narrow-body and widebody models.

BREAKDOWN OF NEW DELIVERIES (2023-2042)