Aluminum

Aluminum Market Global Outlook

• Global primary aluminum demand is expected to increase by 3–4 percent Y-o-Y in 2023, driven by an increase in thrust for low carbon economy

• The automotive industry emerged as the main demand driver for aluminum, in 2021. However, in 2022, global semiconductor chip shortage coupled with economic slowdown caused a number of auto OEMs to temporarily suspend operations , impacting aluminum demand from the segment

• Packaging segment is expected to grow at a significant rate (5–6 percent Y-o-Y) in 2023, owing to growing demand at-home and multi-pack consumption of canned beverages. Driven by sustainability goals and shift in consumer preference beverage and packaged food producers have been increasingly replacing plastic and glass packaging with aluminum

Global Aluminium Market Overview - Production & Consumption

• The primary aluminum market is estimated to have ended the year 2022, with a deficit of 0.9 MMT as compared with approximately 1 MMT deficit situation in 2021. The deficit was driven production curtailment in Europe and the US

• An estimated 2.28 MMT capacity aluminum capacity in China is expected to be commissioned through capacity replacement by the end of 2022.Rebound in Alumina prices are expected to put upward pressure on the prices.

• The overall capacity in China is likely to remain 43–45 MMT during the next two years, as some of the capacity additions will involve swapping decommissioned capacity for new production

• Consumption of aluminum is expected to slowdown in 2023,owing to economic slowdown and volatility in commodity prices. In addition, high production cost, supply chain disruptions and uncertain market demand could force the buyers to engage into short – medium term contracts.

• However, as of H2 2022, the current operating capacity at China is estimated to have reached over 40 MMT. Ease of lockdown restrictions is expected to add more supply into the spot market.

Global Aluminum Market Overview - Regional Breakup

• Primary aluminum output in China is estimated to have reached around 40 MMT in 2022, due to new capacity additions during H2 2022.However,capacity curtailment in Europe and the USA owing to higher energy cost has offset major growth in the supply.

• During the year 2021, close to 3.7 MMT of smelting capacity was shut down due to non-compliance with environmental regulations. However, 4-5 MMT of new capacity came online, mainly in the hydro power rich Yunnan region.

• In India, key producers like NALCO and Vedanta together added close to 1 MMT of primary aluminum capacity in 2021.

• Indonesia is expected to witness capacity additions in 2023,as the country has announced to ban bauxite exports from June 2023 and is ramping up the Aluminum production capacity in the country.

• Global primary aluminum production is expected to have increased marginally 0.7% Y-o-Y in 2022 to reach 68 MMT. The increase in capacity additions in China had offset capacity curtailment in Europe and the USA.

Global Aluminum Market Overview - End-use

• Aluminum demand in the automotive and transportation industry is driven by light-weighting requirements to achieve fuel economy as well as emissions regulations in key markets like North America, Europe and China. Aluminum content per vehicle in key markets is expected to reach close to 570 pounds per vehicle by 2030.

• The segment is expected to witness a slowdown in the consumption throughout 2022,owing to shortage of semi-conductor chips.

• The construction sector demand, improved in H2 2021, due to various stimulus measures implemented by governments across the globe.

• The demand from the packaging industry is expected to increase in coming years, as industries look for alternatives for plastic packaging.

• Demand from the transportation segment is expected grow between 4-5% from 2021-2023. However, in 2022 demand remained low owing to decline in automotive production.

Aluminum Price Trend and Forecast

• Aluminum prices touched a seven-month high earlier in January, up 18 percent since the start of 2023 on expectations of rising demand in top consumer China, which this month abandoned its zero-Covid policy

• Prices sentiments also found support, as China raised export tariffs on unwrought primary aluminum and alloy at the start of this year China exported 196,000 tons of unwrought primary aluminum in 2022, the highest volume since 2008

Why You Should Buy This Aluminum Market Report

• The aluminum market analysis report highlights the regional aluminum industry outlook 2021,  aluminium market size, aluminum market share, aluminum market forecast, aluminium price forecast 2021, and aluminum market trends for the Americas, Europe, Australia, and APAC. 
• Overview of the global non-ferrous metals, minerals and mining aluminum market, major cost components involved in aluminum production, key mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategies.
• It lists out the factors affecting the aluminium industry and key drivers and constraints such as end-user demand, environmental concerns, and dollar exchange rate.
• Porter’s five forces analysis of the global aluminum industry.
• Key supplier profiles and SWOT analysis of players such as UC Rusal, Chalco, and Alcoa.