Commodity Forecast Leader

Job Summary:

We are seeking an accomplished Senior Manager/Associate Director to lead and scale our Commodity Price Forecasting function. This leader will oversee a 12–15-member team responsible for developing price forecasts across multiple commodities, regions, and categories.

The role demands strong forecasting expertise, deep commodity market insights, and proven leadership experience. This individual will own the end‑to‑end forecasting program including methodology, governance, delivery cadence, stakeholder alignment, and team capability development.

Key Responsibilities:

Team Leadership

• Lead and mentor a team of 12–15 analysts responsible for multi‑region, multi‑category price forecasting
• Establish team structure, coverage allocation, and workload balancing across commodities and regions.
• Build team capabilities in forecasting techniques, commodity fundamentals, automation, stakeholder communication, and analytical insights
• Drive a culture of ownership, collaboration, continuous learning, and high performance

Governance & Delivery:

• Oversee the end‑to‑end forecasting program including planning, prioritization, delivery governance, and quality assurance
• Ensure the accuracy, timeliness, explainability, and reliability of all forecasting outputs
• Implement rigorous quality standards including back‑testing, error tracking (MAPE), and frequent model recalibration.
• Introduce and scale automation for data ingestion, validation, model refresh, and reporting to improve efficiency and reduce manual effort
• Standardize data pipelines, templates, and reporting formats to efficiently manage forecasts across 500+commodity indices

Commodity Forecasting Expertise

• Develop and refine forecasting methodologies using time‑series models, econometrics, machine learning, driver models, and scenario frameworks
• Ensure that all models are auditable, transparent, and supported by clear assumptions and confidence ranges
• Provide deep subject matter expertise on commodity dynamics including supply‑demand drivers, benchmarks, and market trends
• Analyze market price and convert them into decision-ready insights—summarizing the observed change in prices, explaining the reasons behind it, highlighting its impact on the business, and presenting forward-looking scenarios

Stakeholder Management:

• Serve as the primary liaison between client teams and internal Beroe teams for all commodity price forecasting requirements
• Lead alignment discussions, governance forums, and conflict‑resolution meetings
• Influence adoption of forecasting outputs and guide stakeholders toward data‑driven decision‑making

Qualifications & Skills:

• Master’s degree in Finance, Business Administration, Economics, Accounting, or related field
• 12–15+ years of experience in commodity forecasting, pricing analytics, procurement analytics, or market intelligence
• Demonstrated leadership experience managing teams of 10-15 members in a high‑intensity delivery environment
• Proven ability to run a function end‑to‑end—strategy, execution, stakeholder management, governance, and delivery assurance
• Strong exposure to commodity markets across chemicals, polymers, energy, metals, agriculture, packaging, and industrial inputs

Core Technical Skills

• Forecasting: time‑series models, driver/regression models, econometric frameworks
• Statistical: model validation, back‑testing, error measurement, bias detection
• Data proficiency: SQL, large structured datasets, data quality processes, automation frameworks
• Fundamental analysis: Supply-demand analysis, impact of geopolitical tensions and conflicts, natural disasters, etc. on commodities

Leadership & Behavioral Competencies

• Take full accountability for priorities, anticipate risks proactively, and deliver consistently with minimal supervision
• Effectively delegate, train team members, drive accountability, and resolve conflicts with sound judgment and professionalism
• Articulate insights in a concise, structured, and outcome‑focused manner suitable for senior stakeholders and decision-makers
• Convert complex problems into clear drivers, actionable insights, and well‑defined recommendations
• Build consensus across diverse teams, negotiate scope and priorities, and drive adoption of forecasting outputs and strategic decisions
• Manage team’s performance and appraisal processes end-to-end