Beyond Beans: The Future of Cocoa Origins in Global Procurement Strategy

Author: Padmaja P. B., Lead Analyst, Beroe 
Co-author: Niyamath Parveez, Director Exports, AfricanPods Commodity Export Limited  

Why diversifying sourcing is becoming increasingly important in cocoa procurement 

The global cocoa supply chain is over-exposed to a single geographic band; Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana still supply well over 60% of global beans, which concentrates climate, disease, policy, and regulatory risks into the same agro-ecological zone [1]. In 2023/24, production fell by approximately 13%, leaving a deficit of around 0.5 MMT and propelling prices above $12,000/t; even after easing, structurally tight balances persist [1], [2]. Meanwhile, compliance requirements – especially the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (EUDR) – demand verified geolocation, deforestation-free status, and robust due diligence from 2025 onward [3], with meaningful cost and operational implications for buyers [4]. 

Procurement can no longer treat West Africa as a single interchangeable origin. The next wave of resilience will come from diversifying origin risk – building selective volume and capability from emerging sources whose risk profiles are less correlated with Ghana or the Côte d’Ivoire. 

The dangers of relying on single origin sourcing 

Shared climate exposure, similar farm demographics, and interlinked policy regimes make Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana vulnerable to simultaneous disruptions. The triple threat is clear: 

• Climate stress shrinks suitable land and accelerates pests and disease; models show marked declines in cocoa suitability across the belt by 2050 [2]. 

• Regulatory pressure (EUDR) raises the bar on traceability and forest safeguards; non-compliance risks EU market access and brand credibility [3], [4]. 

• Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) + ageing trees: Ghana alone has more than 500,000 ha impacted by CCSV; rehabilitation requires costly, multi-year replanting and income bridges for farmers [15], [16], [17]. 

For buyers, this manifests as tighter physical availability and rising compliance costs. Sourcing strategies must pivot to origins with different structural risk drivers. 

Reframing the challenge as an origin portfolio problem 

In 2023/24, Africa supplied about 71% of global cocoa; Côte d’Ivoire produced roughly 1.67 MMT and Ghana around 0.45 MMT after sharp declines [1]. Demand softened (around 4.8% drop in grindings) yet the deficit deepened and stocks thinned, making the market hypersensitive to origin-specific news [2]. Ecuador, by contrast, has expanded rapidly, under agroforestry and more transparent price pass-throughs, and is on track to overtake Ghana within a few seasons [5]. Origins behave like assets with distinct risk/return attributes; therefore, procurement should actively manage a portfolio of origins, not just a portfolio of contracts. 

Origin	2023/24 Output (MMT)	Share of Global	Key features / trends
Côte d’Ivoire	1.67	~47%	Ageing farms; high EUDR exposure
Ghana	0.45	~13%	CSSV damage; low replanting
Ecuador	0.43 (est.)	~12%	Fastest growth; agroforestry success
Nigeria	0.33	~9%	Scale potential; traceability gaps
Others (Asia, LATAM)	0.68 (combined)	~19%	Diversification options

Sources: [1], [5].

What “origin development” really means – investing in the future, while building resilience 

Leading buyers are integrating commercial commitments with co-investment in agronomy, data, and policy alignment: 

• Multi-year offtakes (3–5 years). Lock baseline volumes with premiums tied to verifiable compliance and social outcomes. 

• Productivity co-investment. Fund nursery stock, CSSV rehab, climate-smart practices (shade, soils, irrigation) to rebuild yield trajectories. 

• Digital traceability. Require farm polygons, risk scoring, and segregated flows aligned with EU due diligence systems. 

• Income-linked incentives. Pay for outcomes (e.g., school attendance, agroforestry adoption); Nestlé’s program shows farmer-level impact and better compliance. 

• Dual-rail policy alignment. Align to EUDR and regional standards (e.g. ARS-1000 – African Regional Standard) to reduce audit friction and anchor local adoption. 

A practical origin-development scorecard 

Coverage & contracting: Update the playbook

In 2024, a severe global supply crisis that caused cocoa prices to skyrocket to unprecedented highs showed that hedges don’t move beans. Futures protect price, not physical availability. Buyers with multi-year, performance-based origin contracts weathered the storm better than spot-dependent peers. Category managers should tie premiums to measurable improvements in traceability and farmer income and harmonize on EUDR + ARS-1000 to simplify assurance [3], [8], [12], [13]. 

Rethinking the origin mix 

Procurement teams should consider maintaining core West African volumes for continuity but deliberately expand in Latin America (Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia) and selective Africa/Asia origins (Nigeria, Cameroon, Liberia, Sierra Leone; Uganda, Tanzania; Papua New Guinea, Indonesia). Scaling via milestone-based pilots that prove yields, traceability quality, and compliance is a good first step.

Region	Key origins	Opportunity	Key risks
West Africa	Nigeria, Cameroon, Liberia, Sierra Leone	Growth headroom, diversification	Governance gaps; cross-border leakage [10], [11]
Latin America	Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia	Scale + traceability leadership	Cost, policy volatility [5]
East Africa	Uganda, Tanzania	Climatic stability; new routes	Limited processing capacity
Asia-Pacific	PNG, Indonesia	Expanding smallholders	Disease management, traceability systems

What leaders are already doing

Buyer practice	Example initiative	Procurement impact
100% traceable supply	Farm polygons, segregated flows	EUDR audit readiness
Income-linked programs	Nestlé Income Accelerator	More resilient livelihoods
Performance-based premiums	Pay for traceability/social KPIs	Verifiable outcomes
Dual compliance	EUDR + ARS-1000	Fewer duplicative audits

Origin spotlight: Liberia – a strategic emerging origin for de-risking cocoa

Liberia shares a border – and climate – with Côte d’Ivoire, yet its market structure, forest baseline, and scale create a distinct profile for buyers seeking diversified, premium, and traceable volumes [18].

The “green” advantage: Forest cover → lower EUDR friction

Liberia retains a comparatively high share of intact rainforest. Historic cocoa expansion has not mirrored the large-scale forest loss seen elsewhere. For procurement, this means a cleaner path to deforestation-free claims, simpler geolocation assurance, and compelling brand narratives around conservation-linked cocoa [19].

Low volume, high traceability

With approximately 10,000–20,000 MT/year, Liberia is a small producer – but that is an asset for premium strategies. The absence of a monopolistic cocoa board enables direct engagement with co-ops and exporters, making 100% farm-to-buyer traceability realistic and cost-efficient versus the complexity of large, legacy systems next door [20].

Near-organic baseline → faster certification

Years of underinvestment mean many farms use minimal synthetic inputs. Transitioning to Organic/Rainforest Alliance/Fair Trade can be faster and cheaper than in high-input systems, unlocking premiums of several hundred dollars per MT in specialty channels.

Upscaling via intensification, not expansion

Average yields (below 300 kg/ha) are a fraction of technical potential. The biggest lever is rehabilitation and good agricultural practices on existing plots – pruning, sanitation, improved materials, and shade management – delivered through co-op-level training and agroforestry models that fit Liberia’s rainfall and forest context. This drives climate resilience and aligns neatly with EUDR expectations. 

Ground constraints and how to solve them

Constraint	Procurement impact	Strategic fix
Post-harvest quality	Inconsistent fermentation/drying → discounts	Fund centralized fermentation + dryers; standardize grading
Rural infrastructure	High transport costs; lead-time variability	Public-private partnership-funded road fixes; regional storage hubs
Access to finance	No funds for rehab or replanting	Co-op credit lines and pre-financing via offtakes
Co-op capacity	Weak governance / business skills	Long-term TA on management, QA, gender leadership
Policy consistency	Slow or uneven enforcement	Public-private dialogue; clear farm/contract standards

Fastest win: finance and build centralized fermentation centers at the co-op level. This single intervention lifts quality to specialty thresholds, simplifies traceability, and moves sellers out of the bulk discount trap.

A two-phase blueprint for buyers

Phase 1 (Years 1–3): Proof & niche integration

• Sign multi-year offtakes with high-potential co-ops; embed premiums tied to traceability and quality [24].

• Co-fund post-harvest hubs and QA equipment.

• Map all farms (GPS polygons); segregate compliant flows for EUDR [21], [23].

• Pilot agroforestry for shade, biodiversity, and income diversification.

Phase 2 (Years 4–7): Sustainable scaling

• Expand to multiple co-ops; lift Liberia to ~3–5% of West Africa sourcing.

• Explore in-country light processing (e.g., liquor) to add value locally.

• Support Organic/RA/Fair Trade certification pathways for premium access.

Why a strong local partner is non-negotiable

Local exporters or social businesses bring context, networks, and operational continuity – vital for navigating land tenure norms, seasonality, and last-mile logistics. Local ownership also improves sustainability and resilience to donor or market shifts [22].

Multi-party, long-term offtake agreements

The most durable supply chain structure includes Buyer + Local Exporter + Co-op:

• Buyer/importer: guaranteed volume; living-income-linked price architecture; funding for traceability/quality investments.

• Exporter/local partner: logistics, pre-financing, QA, daily interface.

• Co-op: data accuracy, quality protocols, zero-deforestation and social safeguards.

This spreads risk, unlocks blended financing, and ensures accountability for shared KPIs [24], [25], [26]. It reframes the relationship from “customer/vendor” to partners co-creating a compliant, premium supply base.

How to make cocoa procurement more resilient

Cocoa’s next era will be defined less by cyclical surplus and deficits, and more by resilience, compliance, and credibility. Concentration in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire is no longer tenable amid climate shocks, CSSV, and escalating due diligence. The answer is an origin-portfolio strategy backed by multi-year commitments, farm-level data, farmer-income incentives, and regional policy alignment.

Liberia exemplifies what a future-fit origin can look like: a strong conservation baseline, practical pathways to 100% traceability, rapid progress to certifications, and large yield-gap upsides – if buyers pair offtakes with targeted investment. The key recommendation to buyers is to act now: the cost of cultivating new, ethical origins is dwarfed by the cost of prolonged exposure to correlated shocks in the traditional heartland. Strategic diversification isn’t optional – it’s the procurement mandate for the decade ahead.