10 ways to adjust supply chains to sanctions and policy shifts – a spotlight on packaging

1. Consider early contracting for metal packaging (Risk Ý)

With EU steel import quotas being slashed nearly in half and a hefty 50% tariff planned on any excess volumes, metal packaging supplies (cans, drums, metal caps, crown corks) could face severe shortages or price spikes through 2026. [1] Organizations should expect continued pressure on metal prices into 2026, with only slight relief if new supply (e.g., more tin production) comes online. [2]

• Lock in long-term contracts for metal packaging inputs like tinplate steel, aluminum, and metal closures well ahead of time.  
• Consider material efficiency measures to hedge against volatile costs. [2]
• Negotiate price-escalation clauses and volume guarantees with suppliers; consider indexing part of the price to metal indices to share risk.

2. Adopt resin-indexed pricing for plastics (Risk ÛÜ)

Resin prices are in a downtrend due to oversupply, weak downstream demand, and inventory buildup. PlasticsEurope warns that without action, Europe’s plastics industry could face an accelerated wave of plant closures. [3] As sustainability and circular economy initiatives grow, procurement might tap into recycled PET or bio-based plastics to diversify supply.

• Include clauses that adjust packaging prices quarterly based on resin cost indices (e.g., ICIS or Platts) ensuring that price movements reflect underlying input costs. This approach allows buyers to benefit when resin prices fall while protecting suppliers from unsustainable losses when prices rise, helping to maintain stable supply relationships amid market volatility.
• Embrace resin-indexed pricing and flexible contracts for plastic packaging materials (PET bottles, caps/closures, pouches, and other flexible packaging).

3. Reroute and rebalance logistics networks (Risk ÛÜ)

With the U.S. and China exchanging port fee hikes on each other’s ships, plus other freight disruptions (from Panama Canal droughts to Red Sea conflicts), organizations need to explore alternate shipping lanes, ports, and modalities. [4] [5] Global freight is entering a phase of structural change - more capacity (i.e. new ships) is coming online, which has kept ocean rates relatively stable or even lowered prices despite ongoing disruptions. [6] Predictive analytics enable procurement teams to anticipate future needs rather than reacting to shortages or excess stock. By analyzing internal purchasing patterns, supplier lead times, market indicators, and seasonality, procurement can better align sourcing decisions with real operational demand. This reduces reliance on emergency buying or inflated spot-market prices.

• Work closely with freight forwarders to identify the most cost-effective routes each quarter.
• Build flexibility into Incoterms – for example, arrange for suppliers in Asia to hand over goods at the port so your logistics team can choose the carrier and route. This allows you to reroute shipments if one lane becomes too costly or delayed.
• Localize warehouses, and if overseas shipping falters, use regional distribution centers to engage buffer stock closer to factories and markets. 

4. Pool volume and collaborate on procurement (Risk Þ)

Bulk ordering of standard items (like wooden pallets, corrugate boxes, or commodity bottles/caps) can unlock better pricing and priority from suppliers. Volume pooling may become more common by 2026 as companies continue seeking cost efficiencies under inflationary pressures.

• Internally, consolidate packaging SKUs where possible so that multiple products use the same type of pouch, closure, or pallet size, increasing order quantities.
• Externally, consider joining a purchasing consortium or informal alliance with non-competing companies to co-buy raw materials or shipping capacity.
• Pallet rental pools, shared among many companies, will remain a popular way to ensure pallet availability without each firm stockpiling its own.

5. Diversify suppliers and nearshore sourcing (Risk Ý)

With average U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports at 47.5 percent, packaging procurement is entering a new cost environment, especially for buyers sourcing a large share of caps, closures, or pouches from China, where landed costs can rise sharply under the updated tariff regime. Geopolitical tensions show no signs of fully abating, so tariffs and trade barriers could remain or even expand in 2026. 

• Seek out alternative suppliers in regions not subject to such tariffs: for U.S. companies, consider Mexico or Latin America for plastics and corrugates; for EU companies, look within Europe or Turkey/North Africa; for global companies, India or Southeast Asia can be viable options.
• Implement a “China+1” strategy: ensure for every packaging component, there is at least one qualified supplier outside China.
• Audit spend to identify any category with >50% from a single country and fast-track dual sourcing for those.
• Tap into databases or supplier directories to find local suppliers, including smaller ones, who can step up if imports falter.

6. Adjust contract terms for trade volatility (Risk ÛÜ)

Without adaptive contracts, companies face increased exposure to policy and market shifts, which can result in paying above-market prices or losing suppliers who withdraw to avoid financial losses. Expect more contingency planning baked into agreements. By 2026, savvy suppliers and buyers will treat trade disruptions as expected occurrences, not rare surprises, and contracts will routinely include playbooks for tariffs or fees.

• Work with legal and suppliers to create a shared-risk model: for instance, agree upfront how to split any new tariff costs 50/50, or allow either party to exit the contract if a sanction prohibits the trade.
• Shorten contract durations in high-uncertainty categories to maintain flexibility – for example, opting for rolling six-month agreements for imported plastic jars instead of committing to a fixed three-year price.

7. Increase buffer stocks for critical packaging (Risk ÛÜ)
The need for buffer stocks may ease slightly by late 2026 if supply chains become more predictable and trade barriers stabilize. However, many companies have learned hard lessons from the past few years and will likely continue a more conservative inventory approach. We anticipate permanent changes in inventory policy, with CPOs justifying higher safety stocks for strategic materials to their CFOs by pointing at costly plant downtimes in prior crises. Automation in warehouses and better demand forecasting by 2026 will help optimize these buffers. 

• Prioritize which components to buffer by assessing lead times and single-source reliance. For example, if wooden pallets become scarce due to sanctions, having a reserve stock (or a pallet pooling service subscription) can keep distribution running.
• Implement inventory tracking to rotate stock on a “First-In, First-Out" basis and avoid material obsolescence
• Explore consignment stock agreements where suppliers keep a dedicated safety stock which is only chargeable when used.

8. Leverage tariff mitigation and trade tools (Risk Þ)

Use available trade tools to mitigate tariffs and sanctions impact on packaging imports. For instance, U.S. importers could utilize Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) to defer or reduce duties on Chinese packaging materials - goods can be brought into an FTZ without immediate tariffs, and if they’re re-exported or used in a product that’s exported, duties may be avoided entirely. Another useful mechanism is duty drawback, which allows companies that import packaging and subsequently re-export it (or the finished goods containing it) to reclaim a significant portion of the tariffs originally paid. Supply chain financial engineering will become an increasingly standard part of procurement’s role in a turbulent trade environment.

• Classify packaging carefully - slight differences in Harmonized System codes can mean a big tariff difference. Work with customs brokers or consultants to ensure, for example, that plastic closures aren’t misclassified under a higher duty category.
• Explore free trade agreements: is certain packaging available from an FTA partner country with lower or zero duties? 

9. Embrace sustainable and alternative materials (Risk Þ)

By 2026, sustainability will be a core driver in packaging procurement. Expect more government policies favoring recycled content or low-carbon materials, which might include tax breaks or, conversely, taxes on non-recyclables. Early adopters of alternatives will be ahead of the curve.

• Pilot at least one material substitution in a high-risk category - for example, trial aluminum or glass for a product line traditionally in plastic or use molded pulp trays instead of plastic inserts. Not only might this avoid tariffs, but it also supports sustainability goals, which can win internal, customer, and stakeholder support.
• Switching wooden pallets with plastics for certain loops might bypass trade barriers (e.g. ISPM-15 and wood product tariffs etc.)

10. Stay informed and agile (Risk ÛÜ)

The winners in 2026’s procurement arena will be those who anticipate change and adapt early. We expect continued policy flux - perhaps new environmental rules on packaging, trade realignments, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Agility will become a procurement KPI, which means policy intelligence must become a core part of procurement, in addition to standard supplier and market intelligence. Subscribe to trade bulletins, leverage AI tools for news monitoring, and maintain close contact with suppliers about what they’re hearing on the ground.

• Designate a “trade watch” team or point person who provides monthly (or real-time) updates on relevant sanctions, tariffs, and regulations affecting packaging.
• Conduct scenario planning drills: What if a key port closes or a 100% tariff hits a material overnight? Having a playbook prepared for various scenarios speeds up responses.

What procurement leaders must do to navigate packaging supply chain disruptions

By implementing these supply chain adjustments, packaging procurement leaders can navigate the choppy waters of 2025-26 with greater confidence. The key is a proactive, strategic stance: anticipate trade policy impacts, spread risks, and craft a nimble tariff response plan. From PET bottles to wooden pallets, every packaging category can be buffered against disruption with the right mix of early action, smart contracts, and creative sourcing.  

With an advisory, practical approach, CPOs can turn these global challenges into an opportunity to build more resilient and sustainable supply chains for the future. Uncertainty is best met with preparedness - and these strategies will help ensure packaging supplies keep flowing no matter what policy shifts lie ahead.