Regional Market Outlook on Liquid Fuels
Majority of domestic consumption of petroleum products in Nigeria is supported via imports, due to lack of domestic infrastructure in refining. In terms of pricing, all the wholesale prices of fuel are linked to currency rates. Hence, due to changes in Naira vs. USD, the prices of energy fuels change significantly
Fuel Pricing NIgeria
- The landed cost of fuels is linked to the benchmark index pegged to NWE Europe CIF price for AGO, fuel oils, etc.
- The pricing to end consumers is based on cost plus model, and all the costs are recovered before getting at the final consumer price with a margin for distributors or oil companies or brokers, which ranges from 20 percent to 25 percent of the end prices to consumers
- The end prices for deregulated petroleum products are also dependent on the exchange prices Naira vs. USD, as this impacts the import cost to the country
- On top of CIF price, trader’s margin, financing charges, storage charges, administrative expenses, port charges are also added on the import prices to arrive at the depot prices
- Distributor’s margin, transportation cost, dealer margin, and taxes are added on the depot price to arrive at the end prices to consumers in Nigeria
Diesel: Automotive Gas Oil Market Overview
Domestic supply of diesel in Nigeria has been declining, and this has led to an increase in imports. The country imported around 77 percent of its diesel consumption in 2017. The majority of diesel demand in Nigeria comes from the retail sector, which constitutes nearly 94% of the total diesel consumption share.
- In 2017, the overall demand for diesel/gasoil in Nigeria stood at 5.56 billion liters, which was an increase of 30.8 percent Y-o-Y, which was due to allowing private companies to import diesel and sell in the market. Private players were given the permission to import the finished petroleum products, which have been completely deregulated in the market
- Most of the diesel/gasoil is generally consumed by the retail sector in Nigeria for powering household and commercial generators for lighting. Industrial consumption constitutes only around 6 percent of the total consumption in AGO in Nigeria
- The total AGO imports in Nigeria stood at 4.28 Billion liters in 2017. In Q1 2018, the total import for AGO stood at nearly 1 billion liters (954.47 million liters)
- In 2018, it is estimated that the AGO demand would increase to 7.26 billion liters, with a CAGR growth of 30.75 percent from 2015 to 2017. Due to high imports of finished petroleum products, the availability of AGO in Nigeria is expected to be stable in 2018
Downstream Oil & Gas Sector in Nigeria
Nigeria now has nearly 120 active private depots, with a total storage capacity of nearly 4.5 billion liters, constituting PMS – 3.3 MMt, AGO – 2.2 MMt, DPK – 1.8 MMt, 47 Private Jetties, and 22,000 active haulage trucks.
Installed Capacity and Demands of Fuels in Nigeria
- The shortage of nearly 19 million liters/day for the demand of PMS is generally met by importing the finished product into the country
- The country has 4 refineries: 2 at Port Harcourt, 1 at Warri and 1 at Kaduna with a total production of 2.9 MMt of petroleum finished products in 2017
- A new refinery (Dangote Refinery) with a capacity of 600,000 bpd is expected to get commissioned by 2019 in Nigeria
Refinery Capacity Utilisationin Nigerian Refineries
- The decrease in operational performance of refineries is due to the decrease in crude processed by PHRC & KRPC
- The ongoing revamping of the refineries in PHRC and KRPC is expected to enhance capacity utilization once completed
- The consolidated capacity utilization of refineries in Nigeria in 2017 was around 18.16 percent, which is very low, due to old infrastructure in the refineries
Inefficiencies in Downstream Petroleum Subsector
The Nigerian downstream petroleum sector has witnessed several challenges in the last decade, which has crippled business development in Nigeria. This has resulted in inefficient development of oil refineries, supply chain, and distribution network across the country.
- Nigeria, due its aged refineries, has witnessed the production go down and is unable to meet the demand of the country, coupled with refinery closures, due to upgradation
- Several instance of vandalism have been reported, as per the 2016 annual statics bulletin by NNPC, the company has witnessed 2,589 incidents vandalization and nearly, 55 incidents of pipeline ruptures, which resulted in a loss of 80.93 thousand MT of petroleum products
- A total of 23 cases of fire incidents were reported and recorded in 2016
- Due to supply shortage, the country has witnessed a sharp increase in prices of fuel (Feb-2017 – N249.38 per liter), which has resulted in compromise in quality of fuels, due to adulteration
- Due to government control over the petroleum sector, private companies were restricted from investing in the oil & gas sector in the country
- The upstream and mid-stream sectors are majorly owned and operated by government companies, which had failed to develop the infrastructure