Global Market Outlook on Haul Trucks
Increase in demand for automated equipment, along with the rising demand from Southeast Asia, is propelling the demand for mining trucks at 2–3 percent CAGR during 2018–2020.The SME market is expected to reach over $26 billion in 2020, growing at an average CAGR of 3 percent, owing to an increase in mining activities in developing nations and an overall increase in commodity demand.
- The mining equipment market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5–4 percent during 2016–2020, with mining trucks accounting for over one-third of the mining equipment market
- Increase in demand for automated equipment, along with a rising demand from Southeast Asia, is propelling the demand for mining trucks at 2–3 percent CAGR during 2018–2020
- The APAC dominates the market, accounting for 37 percent of the market, followed by Americas, accounting for about 40 percent of the mining equipment demand in 2017
Market Assessment: Global
Mining dump truck has a diverse payload range of 90 to 363 MT. About 46,000 trucks are on active duty, making this the biggest mining equipment sub-category.
- Share of shipment of mining haul trucks in the range 90–110 t increased from 40 percent to 53 percent in 2016, whereas the ultra class >290t haul trucks retained their share of 25 percent of the total shipments
- The market share of 154–255 t category declined from 35 percent in 2011–2015 to 22 percent in 2016
Market Assessment: Commodity Price Index
Prices of key commodities are the best indicators of mining activities, which in turn, evinces the demand for haul trucks.
From January 2018 to December 2019, apart from gold (which is expected to decrease by 0.7 percent), the average commodity prices for the rest of the metals are expected to increase by an average of 10–11 percent as compared to last year’s average.
- Demand for commodities increased tremendously, as the economy recovered from the 2009 recession. 2010 and 2011 saw a boom in mining activity, due to high demand for raw materials
- Late 2013 and 2014 witnessed a slowdown in mining, resulting in reduced demand for HME
- Again, 2014–2015 witnessed reduced demand; however, it is expected to uptrend in the coming years, thus driving up the demand for haul trucks
Market Drivers and Constraints
- A gradual increase in mining activities in the key global markets, such as India, Indonesia, and China will drive up the demand for HME
- A gradual rise in key mining commodities demand, triggers the mining companies to increase the production level, which will drive up the demand for haul trucks
- Increase in demand for the automated equipment is expected to drive the demand for the haul trucks, as it is one of the trending solutions for mining companies for lowering the unit costs
- Slowdown in the Chinese economy has adversely affected the global mining market, thereby deteriorating the demand for haul trucks
- Resource nationalism poses the threat to mining companies and OEM manufacturers alike. Resource nationalism is a potential risk in various regions, including Canada, and is a constraint against capital investment adversely impacting haul trucks
Cost Structure Analysis
- Haul truck equipment cost structure pricing by suppliers is done based on demand and raw material prices of the equipment
- The profit margin for haul truck is set up by the supplier, based on demand from the customers in that region and competition among the suppliers
- Raw materials include steel, nickel, chromium, and rubber. Based on fluctuations in these prices, the overall cost index has been obtained
- Indonesian rubber prices have been considered for calculation, as most of the rubber output is from this region
- Utility cost (electricity, labor and overheads) accounts for 33–40 percent of the equipment cost