Global Market Outlook on Coconut & Derivatives
Coconut milk and cream products have also experienced rapid growth in demand. This has been driven by new ‘alternative dairy food and beverage products’ to cater for the increasing awareness of lactose intolerance and other health issues. Most of the copra is processed to produce coconut oil in the producing country itself.
Supply and Demand Analysis
Large producing countries of Philippines and India actively pursue trade and market confidence internationally for their products.Price of CNO decreased in Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The price of DC decreased in Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
- Philippines, Indonesia and India are the largest producers of coconut. However, these countries consume more than they produce
- Thailand and Papua New Guinea are net producers
- The Malaysian Government has informed APCC of new coconut replanting initiative as its renewed commitment towards the revitalization of the coconut industry.
Desiccated Coconut Trading Pattern
Figures from Sri Lanka’s Coconut Development Authority show the country’s export of desiccated coconut was sharply down in January this year. Total stood at 928 MT, a sharp drop by 68.4% from January last year at 2,941 MT. There were 29 destinations recorded during the month thereof 14 had purchases of at least 100 MT and jointly accounted for 91.3%.
- Countries that bought between 103 MT and 189 MT together accounted for 12.5%, namely China, Russia, Taiwan, Argentina, United Kingdom, Belgium; while 15 countries with uptake ranging 10-99 MT comprised 8.6%
- The latter group consisted of: Spain, Israel, Sweden, South Africa, Uruguay, Turkey, South Korea, New Zealand, Estonia, Switzerland, Ecuador, Fiji, Italy, Hong Kong, Mexico.
- Figures from Sri Lanka’s Coconut Development Authority show the country’s export of desiccated coconut was sharply down in January this year. Total stood at 928 MT, a sharp drop by 68.4% from January last year at 2,941 MT
- The shipment was worth USD3.386 million, likewise sharply declining by 52.1% from prior year at USD7.069 million
- Average traded price was calculated at USD3,649.23/MT FOB, an increase by 51.8% from prior year at USD2,403.54/MT
- Export in January went to at least 27 countries. The top two importers held volume above 100 MT and collectively accounted for 30% of total trade.
- The United States was market leader with 156 MT (16.8% share) while Japan’s uptake was 123 MT (13.2%). The remaining 25 other countries which aggregately accounted for 70% took in volume ranging from a low of 1 MT to a high of 99 MT.
Price Analysis – Coconut Oil
Combined production of lauric oils which is expected to increase by 0.4MMT, together with large carry over stocks may allow an above average increase in global consumption by ~0.6MMT in 2018/19.
- CNO exports increased by ~29% and 8% in Indonesia and Philippines to reach 142 ThMT and 70 ThMT respectively during in January - July 2018.
- Copra production is likely to continue to increase in Q3 and Q4 2018, owing to above-average rainfall since Q4 2017
- Global CNO imports are seen growing by 10% to 1.8MMT this season reflecting a pronounced increase in supply levels from SE Asia. Global consumption is increasing by 0.4MMT in 2017/18
- CNO price remained stable. Prices are likely to trend upwards coupled by ample supplies of PKO. Price premium of CNO over PKO is expected to settle at USD 35/MT in September 2018, considering the relative price movements of oils.
- Combined production of lauric oils which is expected to increase by 0.4MMT, together with large carry over stocks may allow an above average increase in global consumption by ~0.6MMT in 2018/19.