Avocado

Global Market Outlook on Avocados

Supply and demand of avocado are expected to be more balanced in 2018 when compared to the previous year, since production is expected to increase by 3 percent, supported by favorable weather conditions in key producing regions .Mexico's avocado production is estimated to be approx. 1.8 MMT during 2017–2018 .Prices are estimated to rise moderately, due to surging demand from both existing and new markets

• China's imports increased at a CAGR of 115 percent between 2013 and 2017, indicating a steep increase in demand, due to increasing familiarity and popularity for the fruit
• Mexican exports to the US and EU have been increasing by at least 3 to 5 percent every year, hence, its exports to China have been declining recently. However, Mexican exports to Asia could increase in the coming years
• Other key avocado producers, like Chile and Peru, are finding China as a prospective export destination, due to its market potential, in terms of increasing demand. Currently, Chile is the largest exporter to China, followed by Mexico

Supply: Supply in major producing regions, like Mexico, California, and Peru are expected to be high for this season. Peru's production is expected to increase by 10–15 percent in 2018, owing to favorable weather conditions

Risk: Avocados are sensitive to climatic changes and water supply. They are also prone to fungal and bacterial attacks

Demand: Demand from regular consuming countries, like Europe, the US, Japan, etc., is likely to increase. Demand from new markets, like China and Australia, is also expected to increase rapidly

Market Analysis

Mexico is the preferable destination for the US and European imports, whereas Chile, South Africa, and Peru are preferable for Asia, Eastern Europe, and Middle East imports, since their export markets are likely to expand in the next few years.

Mexico is the major producer of avocados, exporting majorly to the US and other growing markets, like Japan, China, and Europe.

Others

• South Africa, Spain, Australia, Chile, China, Israel, and Haiti are some of the other key players producing 0.05 to 0.12 MMT each
• Countries like Ecuador, New Zealand, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Condo, Madagascar, Costa Rica, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Paraguay produce 0.01 to 0.04 MMT each

Market Overview

• Mexico is the major avocado producing and exporting country, followed by Dominican Republic and Peru
• Michoacán (Mexican state) is the largest region in the world to produce avocado. Its annual production accounts for approx. 80 percent of the total Mexican production
• Increasing demand for healthy foods and increasing Hispanic population in the US will ensure that the demand for guacamole will increase in the future

Supply Trends

• Mexican Hass avocado production is forecast to be 1.8 MMT during 2017–2018, as favorable weather conditions and pest control initiatives are expected to boost production

Demand Trends

• Increasing awareness about the nutrient rich fruit has led to a steady increase in consumption in many regions
• Consumption is recovering in markets, such as Europe (up by approx. 15 percent Y-o-Y)
• China is expected to be a major player in the long run despite its consumption levels remaining in Kilos, as its consumption has been doubling in the past couple of years
• Consumption in Japan and Canada has been increasing by around 20 percent in the last few years