Global Market Outlook- Aluminium

China is the top largest producer as well as consumer of aluminum followed by Europe. China’s overall supply and demand of aluminium covers more than half of the total global share.World demand for aluminum in 2018 is expected to increase more than the growth in global gross domestic product.Aluminum consumption by the domestic automobile industry is expected to increase as automobile manufacturers increase the per vehicle aluminum content, including the substitution of aluminum sheet for steel in certain truck models, in response to increasing fuel efficiency standards

  • Aluminum consumption by the US and European aircraft manufacturers is expected to increase as airlines continue to replace older aircraft with newer, more fuel efficient models
  • China is going to reduce its aluminium producing capacity from H2 2017 to H1 2018. Approximately, 12 million tons of capacity would be affected and production would fall by between 1 million tons and 1.5 million tons, or 3–4 percent  of China's annual total production
  • Aluminium market has  a supply surplus history for the past many years.
  • China will remain the sole contributor in the overall supply loss of aluminium as the nation’s government is set to reduce the metals production by 1.5Mt which accounts for almost 4 percent of the nation’s annual production during November 2017 to March 2018.
  • Global aluminium production declined almost 3 percent on year-on-year basis and stood at 4.957 million metric tonnes per month when compared to the per month output of 2016.
  • Supply was down 2.23 percent in the last three months alone, production declined after witnessing rise from past three years due to the planned supply cuts from one of the major producer of the aluminium, China.
  • China produces almost more than half of the world’s total production, currently holds 54.4 percent share in the total production. China planned cutbacks on its aluminium and alumina production from second half of 2017.
  • With the current supply fall aluminium will end 2017 in deficit of 99,626 metric tonnes and will remain in continuous deficit from next one to two years with the expected overall supply loss.

Market Drivers and Constraints

  • Increasing demand from downstream industries, such as construction, electronics and manufacturing, will impact the aluminium market in the near future.
  • Automotive and transport industry is expected to be the primary driver for aluminium industry.

Drivers

  • China overall reduction for aluminium supply and capacity levels
  • LME Inventories trading at record lows
  • Expectation of Shanghai inventories to move lower
  • Rising demand for light weight vehicles resulting into overall high usage of aluminium in the auto industry
  • Rebound in the global aluminium premiums

Constraints

  • Historical Supply Glut
  • China not able to meet the expected aluminium supply cut targets
  • Overall weakness in the base metals market

Price Outlook

  • Aluminium prices trading at LME fell with a loss of 1.40 percent in December 2017 and stood at $2070.74/MT as compared to $2101.02/MT in November 2017
  • Aluminium production fell globally in November 2017 as expected; global supply declined almost 4.90 percent and stood at 4.714 million metric tonnes as compared to 4.957 million metric tonnes in October 2017, according to latest numbers released by International Aluminium Institute (IAI)
  • According to International Aluminium Institute (IAI), China domestic production of aluminium on the other hand kept drifting lower and declined by 2.45 percent in October 2017 and stood at 2.55 million metric tonnes as compared to 2.61 million metric tonnes per month in September 2017
  • Global demand rose by 3.5 percent during January to October compared with the levels recorded one year previously