Monsoon 2016 – review of crop prospects

In collaboration with Revathi Udayashankar, Research Analyst 

Earlier in June, we had noted in our blog post that India's weather office, India Meteorological Department (IMD), had said monsoon rainfall is expected to be above normal with an average 106% of LPA (Long Period Average). This indicated 2016 could turn out to be a year of surplus rainfall followed by two years of drought.   

The South West Monsoon (SWM) has mostly withdrawn across India, paving the way for the onset of Northeast Monsoon (NEM) that mostly affects Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh in the months October to December.

Rainfall during the just concluded monsoon season was 97 percent of long period average (LPA), according to IMD. This was much lower than the expected level of 106 percent.

Seasonal rainfalls over Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula and Northeast India were 95 percent, 106 percent, 92 percent and 89 percent of respective LPA.

This year’s SWM ended two years of drought even though the quantum of rainfall was below that of the initial prediction. Sowing has also significantly improved when compared to last year.

Black pepper and Cardamom production is expected to take a hit because of deficient rainfall in Kerala in the months of August and September. And as we have mentioned in our previous, sugar production is expected to fall due to drought in 2015.

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